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Wager- Android app for tracking fight bets with friends
Hey Reddit! I'm a huge boxing fan, and I love making fight predictions with my friends and family. I also happen to make apps for a living, and so I was inspired to make an app for keeping track of bets! I just recently released it for Android, and it's made for anyone like me that enjoys getting people together to predict fights. Bets are just competitions to see who can best predict the future, and the app helps by enabling you to properly make and track these predictions. The app is free and doesn't have ads, it's simply a cool tool that I hope the community likes! If this sounds interesting to you, I'd love whatever feedback, good or bad, that you folks have! You can check it out here: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.anursidae.wager If this doesn't sound interesting to you, I'd also love to know why! :) Thanks!
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.
______________________________________________ Backdated posts added later in edits:
11-02 03:00
Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
A Comprehensive Compilation of All Due Diligence on $GME
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.
______________________________________________ Backdated posts added later in edits:
11-02 03:00
Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
If you visit The Crimson Carnival - Don't go inside The Fun House!
Part 1 When I escaped the Crimson Carnival the first time, I knew I had to go back. It didn’t matter that I had almost died, that I had been badly injured, half-blinded, and burned. Sarah was there. All these years I had felt certain, but had no way to prove it. As it turned out I had been right all along. She had found the place and it had trapped her there, along with hundreds of others. Thousands maybe. The secret ritual needed to get into the place was shared via an online forum and now I had real suspicions about who had planted those “tips”. I had the feeling very few other people had actually been there and escaped. The only reason I had gotten out was that Sarah had seen me and warned me about the true nature of the place. Even then I had barely made it. It had me in some sort of trance, I realized. The time had passed quickly at first, but the longer I stayed the more it sucked me in and consumed me. Hypnotized me. I went home and immediately read the sticky post from the moderators at the top of the main page. After scanning it again, there was no doubt in my mind the whole website was a trap being used to lure people in. Here is what it read: CRIMSON CARNIVAL MODERATOR TIPS - Don’t worry about tracking the time too much! Although “The Crimson Fair leaves with the sun” that doesn’t mean you have to find your way back to the exit before that. Most people stay and watch as the carnival evaporates like smoke at the break of dawn – the grand finale of the fair, as it were. Speaking as someone who has seen it I can tell you, it’s quite a sight and not to be missed! There were plenty of other tips as well, some useful, but most were outright dangerous in retrospect. The whole thing was just a ploy to get people to go to the place, it seemed. To trap them there. And it had worked. Judging by the looks of the midway, filled with entrapped workers, the bait was working and the carnival would continue to grow. Unless someone stopped it. I suddenly had a vision, thinking about the giant red canopy tent at the center of the place. I pictured a massive beating heart in the middle of it, veins and arteries extending out from it, feeding poison to the entire place and everyone trapped there. At the very center of the canopy, I had no doubt now, was the creator of the whole thing. The master of it all. The one who controlled everything and had caused all this chaos and heartache. How many other families had been torn apart? How many relationships destroyed? Husbands and wives, fathers and sons, brothers and sisters – how many lives had been ruined by the monstrosity that was The Crimson Carnival? Somehow I had to stop it. I was maybe the only one who could. I vowed to return, and marked on my calendar the next Friday the 13th, so I would be ready. What I didn’t expect was another person to be waiting in the gravel parking lot to visit the carnival. Another thrill-seeker like my wife, I assumed at first. It turned out they were more like me. “You might want to rethink your visit,” he said after rolling down his car window. “This place isn’t as advertised.” “Tell me about it. I barely got out last time. I wouldn’t be here if I had a choice.” He raised his eyebrows and looked at me solemnly, then got out of his car and went around to the trunk. He pulled out a small bag which he slung over his shoulder. “I’m Gary, what’s your name, kid?” “Jordan.” “You’ve always got a choice, Jordan. Don’t go back in there. It’s no good. It’s got me and it’s gonna get you too if you keep coming back here. Maybe you can still have a life if you go now and don’t come back.” I thought about what he said for a few seconds before responding. He looked serious, and genuinely worried. Was this some trick of the carnival? Did its reach extend this far out? I decided probably not, or else the carnival workers would have pursued me to my car the last time I escaped, instead of staying within its boundaries. “How many times have you done this?” I asked. “Maybe we can help each other.” “Hmm.” He rummaged in his trunk and grabbed a larger backpack and slung that over both shoulders with his bloodied hand leaving red stains everywhere in the process. Next he withdrew a gun belt which he put around his waist. He loaded a large revolver with bullets and shoved it down into the holster. “Kind of old school, isn’t it?” I asked, pointing at the pistol with its wooden grip. I knew nothing about guns and had never fired one myself, but knew they had much more sophisticated weaponry for sale these days. Things that could hold more than six bullets. “Old school doesn’t jam. Old school fires straight every time. It’s that new shit that doesn’t seem to work in there. Almost got killed the first few times until I figured that out.” A thought occurred to me. “Wait a second, those are real people in there! You can’t kill them, this isn’t their fault.” “Listen kid, there’s two types of carnival workers. Those who can be saved and those who can’t. We’re here for the ones who can be. Who is it they got of yours? Girlfriend, I’ll bet.” “Fiancée, actually.” “Well, did you find her? I’m guessing by the look in your eyes you did. So what did she say? Did she recognize you?” “Yeah. She did. For a minute, until something else took over. She came back again for a second, told me to run and never come back.” “You shoulda listened.” He shook his head, gazed up at the sky and seemed to think about it for a few seconds. Letting out a deep breath he admitted, “That means she can still be rescued, though. I think, assuming I’m right, anyways.” “How? She attacked me when I tried.” I pointed a thumb at my eyepatch. “Ha! Yeah I bet she did. Did you see the tubes?” “What tubes?” “Think intravenous tubing. It comes up out of the ground and it’s drilled into their legs. She’s hooked up to the thing at the center of it all, just like the rest of them. Take a look next time, a real close look. The ones who already belong to this place don’t have them, because they’re already full of the poison. Like the welcome clown for instance. Or the ‘Test your Strength’ guy with the sledge hammer.” I recalled with a shudder how that gentleman had nearly murdered me. So that was how they were changing them. The place really was poison. It was taking Sarah’s life force and replacing it with some dark toxin and converting her into a minion of the carnival. A mindless vessel forced to do its bidding until death and beyond. “Come on, we’re wasting time. You got a nickel?” I pulled out the handful of bloody coins I had stolen the last time after I tackled the bastard at the entrance. “Holy shit! Maybe I underestimated you, kid. What did you do, kill the welcome clown or something?” “Ha-ha, no, I… Actually I sort of tackled him.” He let out a short whistle of respect. “Alright. Let’s do this. You got a weapon?” I showed him what I had brought with me. He laughed pretty hard at that. “Oh, shit. You’re serious.” I nodded, and walked forward, approaching the welcome clown. “HOO HOO HOO hoo! I’ve got a surprise, it’s true! Who found the Crimson Carnival? What a delight, it’s you!” The clown seemed not to remember me, he was jovial and happy again. Until the end of the next part of his rhyme, which he said through gritted teeth, in a dark and deep voice full of malice and hatred. “You found the place, my friend! Get inside and have some fun! Your time now very soon will end. The crimson death can’t be und-“ BANG! I looked over in surprise to see that Gary had just shot the welcome clown in the head. He was holding the revolver out and smoke and steam misted from the end of the barrel in the early morning air. He loaded a fresh bullet and flicked a nickel at the dead clown’s body. I couldn’t help but notice the hatchet the clown held in his hand, concealed behind his large baggy pants. I did the same as Gary, tossing a nickel from my shaking, bloodied hand. We had both cut our palms before arriving at the place, and now began to wrap them in makeshift bandages as we proceeded through the turnstiles. “Well, that should make it easier to get past him on the way out,” I said, still in shock. “I learned a while back that the ones who belong to this place don’t die. It doesn’t matter what you do to them. They aren’t human anymore.” “How the hell do you know? What if we can kill the thing responsible for all this? Maybe we can bring them all back to reality!” He opened his mouth to say something and then closed it again. It appeared he hadn’t thought of that possibility. “Alright. I’ll try not to kill anybody else,” he conceded. “Unless I really, really have to.” “Thanks, I appreciate that.” As we got into the carnival, I looked around in surprise to see that none of the stalls were the same as the first time. It was like we were in a completely different midway. “Shoot out the star and win a prize!” a man said from a nearby booth where air-rifles were set up on stands and positioned to point at crimson red stars drawn on paper. I saw a ring toss booth, another with green glass bottles lined up on the floor, and rides just ahead to the left where previously there had been food stands. “What the hell is going on? It’s all different…” “Yeah, the place changes every time,” Gary said, pulling something out of his bag. I saw it was a map. It showed a star with five points, a circle around the outside of it. A pentagram. “It’s a giant star. The pentagon at the center is the canopy tent. The circle around the outside is the fence. Every time you come back, it spins around and you get a different entrance. The clown stays the same, he never changes, no matter which entrance you come in through.” I saw writing on the map and realized he had put little symbols in places. A Ferris Wheel. An apple. A balloon. Each on a different part of the star. “This is the section with the rides. See the Ferris wheel symbol?” He pointed up ahead and I saw the giant wheel, lit up and glowing red just ahead of us. “Do you remember what you saw when you came in last time?” “Let’s see… There was the sledgehammer guy, can’t forget about him. And the darts game where you try to hit the balloons. Sarah was at the Spinning Wheel of Fortune near the entrance to the canopy, I remember that.” His eyes lit up and he smiled, looking relieved. “Well, ain’t that a coincidence? Looks like we’re headed to the same place. My partner Bruce is over at the ticket counter in that area. So we can stick together if you want. Help each other out?” “Sounds good to me,” I said. “You seem to have this place pretty well figured out…” “I wish. Every time I come here it manages to surprise me.” We were walking the whole time as we talked and proceeded past the Ferris wheel and “The Kraken”, “The Gravitron”, and a mini roller coaster. Our route took us near the entrance to “The Funhouse”, and that was where things began to go downhill. Just as we were walking past the stairs leading up to that place, I noticed that the entire carnival had gotten quiet suddenly. No one was shouting at us to visit their booths. The rides had all stopped and so had the music. All I could hear was the sound of our footsteps in the mud. And then others joining in, getting louder as they neared us. Suddenly there was a dozen carnival workers approaching us from all sides. They walked towards us in unison, silently, their eyes glowing red in the darkness. “Shit. They’ve never done this before. I don’t think they like that we’re teaming up.” I looked back over my shoulder and saw more coming from that direction. The only way to escape was up the stairs and into “The Funhouse”. We both went that way without thinking, as they closed in on us from every direction. Once we got inside, I was immediately disoriented. I felt the reflective walls with my hand and followed after Gary, trying not to lose track of him. The first section was a maze made of mirrors, and I found myself running head-first into a few of them, causing my nose to bleed. The shapes of them made everything warped and distorted. My absent left eye was not helping, thanks to my newfound lack of depth perception. “OW! Fuck.” “You alright back there, kid?” he asked. “Yeah, just great. Are we almost at the exit of this place yet?” “Not sure. I haven’t been in this one before.” I heard footsteps in pursuit behind us and my heart began to hammer with fear again. They were following us closely and by the sounds of it they knew this place a lot better than us. “Hurry, they’re right behind us,” I said, pushing him forward. Finally we got out of the disorienting darkness of the house of mirrors and arrived at the next section. The walls and floors were slanted and I stumbled trying to walk towards a door that seemed further away than it actually was. The lines on the walls didn’t help, as they seemed purposely drawn in such a way as to confuse the eyes. A strobe light began to flash, making me feel even more sick and disoriented, as we stumbled along through the wonky space. I saw the corridor was narrower the further along we went, until I was breathing rapidly with increasing panic and claustrophobia. Soon we were on our knees crawling through a tight space, and then we began to slide without warning downwards and around bending corners like a spiral slide in a waterpark. Only this one had no water and I found my knees beginning to burn and ache from the friction of movement. We picked up speed and began to go up and down in wavelike motions as the slide became steeper and steeper. Faster and faster, until the walls were a blur and I felt my stomach drop sickeningly with each rise and fall of the floor. Finally we reached the bottom and I felt completely weightless, sailing off a ramp and flying through the air, screaming, to land in a giant ball-pit. At first it was a relief, since I didn’t die from the impact of my fall, but then I began to sink and kick, trying to find the bottom. It wasn’t there. “Oh fuck. I don’t like this.” I looked over and saw Gary panicking as well. The ball-pit seemed to have no floor underneath it. You had to actually swim in it to stay afloat, pushing off against the resistance from below to keep your head above the surface of it. “I can’t swim, kid,” he said desperately. “Help!” His head went under and he flailed and kicked and came back up again, his face red and looking deprived of oxygen. “Shit. Just pretend you’re on a bicycle, Gary. Kick with your legs and… I don’t know, make kind of like arcs in front of you with your hands, okay? You can do it, just keep kicking and moving your arms.” I could see his head going beneath the surface. I knew if I went to save him I would be dragged under with him. People drowning usually have a tendency to take other people with them, unfortunately. “Come on, Gary. This way,” I said, trying to lead him away from the slide and towards solid ground off in the distance. There was a sign marked “exit” that way as well. “We’re almost out of here!” His eyes became large all of a sudden, and his head disappeared below the surface in an instant, as if something very large and strong had just grabbed him by the ankle and dragged him below. I took a moment to stare in shock at the space where he had just been before I heard the sounds from behind me and my instinct to survive kicked in again. I started to swim out of the ball-pit and towards the exit, just as the carnival workers came careening down the slide. I saw knives and axes and other weapons glinting in their hands in the dull light. Kicking with my legs as hard as I could, I swam towards solid ground through the ball-pit. My heart was hammering loudly in my ears and my mouth and throat were dry. Music began to blast from speakers above so I could no longer hear my pursuers. It was the song of the circus – the classic we all know but have never bothered to look up the name of. “Entry of the Gladiators” is what it’s called if you’re interested. The music that blasted from all angles was jarring and disorienting. I felt something sharp bite into my leg and looked back to see a woman with a pierced nose and her hair done up in a bun with a bone stuck through it. She was smiling widely and her eyes glowed red as she slashed the air and missed me just barely with her knife. Screaming in pain, I kicked at her face and tried to move away from her towards solid ground, which was still not nearly close enough. Looking in that direction, I saw now there were several clowns holding knives waiting for me there. They stood salivating, their shoes squeaking as they paced back and forth watching me and waiting for me to get near enough to them. Gary was dead, and with the carnival workers closing in on me, and nowhere else to run, I had a feeling I would be next. That was when I felt something grip my ankle, hard, nails biting into my skin like talons. It began to pull me down, down, down, into the darkness below. Part 3 JG TCC
If you find The Crimson Carnival, don't stay past sunrise.
I had read the list of instructions thousands of times. The Crimson Carnival can only be found by following a series of specific directives, as outlined by those who had successfully ventured there in the past. Just as described by the moderators of the private online forum, I found it at 3:53AM on a Friday the 13th far out in the countryside after a series of meandering twists and turns that I had followed meticulously as outlined by those who had journeyed to the carnival before me. The detailed instructions were specific and required pain and personal sacrifice, but I was willing to do what I had to. My palm still stung from where the blade had pierced it, and I had intentionally left the wound undressed. Again, another necessary part of the journey. Blood poured from it all over the steering wheel. This seemed distant and unimportant now. I had found the place. After years of hearing about it, reading about it, researching, and building up the courage, I had actually found it. I turned off the engine and got out of the car, the cool night air crisp and fresh as I breathed in. Walking towards the entrance of the fairgrounds, I saw no one else around. The outside of the place was empty and devoid of visitors. Forsaken. The moon was a sliver in the dark night sky above. Sounds of activity could be heard from within the fair, carnival barkers and rides, the loud DING DING DING of someone winning a prize. Everything that would make you think it was a regular carnival. An ordinary fair. A clown was at the entrance, his face was painted bright red around the eyes and mouth, his hair and round nose also crimson. He wore yellow pants with suspenders and welcomed me, waving an oversized white-gloved hand as I approached. “HOO HOO HOO hoo! I’ve got a surprise, it’s true! Who found the Crimson Carnival? What a delight, it’s you!” The clown with the yellow pants was there. Just like all the reports had said. “You've found the place, my friend! Get inside and have some fun! Your time now very soon will end. The crimson death can't be undone.” His face was a toothy grin, all smiles and giggles as he recited the welcoming rhyme. All but the last line, which he said in a low growl. Following that he looked serious and angry. I was taken aback. He was supposed to say, “The Crimson fair leaves with the sun,” as the final line in the rhyme. He was supposed to be the cheerful welcome clown. No scary shit yet. Not yet. But instead he had said, “The crimson death can't be undone,” in that terrifying low rumbling voice and I couldn't help but wonder if I had made some mistake in the ritual. His upper lip quivered as he continued to growl at me. He was supposed to keep smiling, waving, and looking friendly. The dark, really creepy shit was further in. Out by the entrance the carnival was reported to look bright and welcoming. It didn't usually reveal its true form until you were well inside the fences. I just stood there, sweating, panicking, retracing my efforts. I had made no errors, though, I realized as I went through each part of the instructions in my head and pictured myself in my memory doing exactly as instructed. Suddenly I realized I had been standing there for a while, thinking, and the clown was still staring at me. The reply came to me immediately, after years of study I had not forgotten. The cut on my palm still bleeding, I asked the question deliberately and verbatim. Word for word as described online. “All I have is a nickle. Will that cover the fare?” I held up the rare coin and it glittered red with my blood like a ruby in the moonlight. “It lets you in. It lets you through. The bloody nickel, true true true.” He was smiling again and I let out a sigh of relief. Just a little different for a second, but back on track now, nothing to be worried about. I walked past him and through the turnstiles. Looking back I saw he was still smiling his wide toothy grin and took that for a good sign. He waved his white-gloved hand at me and then was swallowed up by darkness and fog. At least he had stopped growling like a rabid dog after the toll had been offered. Something about that had really terrified me. Not that I wasn't already petrified, but when I had run through this in my mind (approximately a million times) things had always gone to plan. According to the descriptions I had read over and over, memorizing them. No one had ever mentioned an alternate ending to the welcome rhyme. Was the place changing? Evolving somehow? No. That was impossible. Through all the years and all the visitors it had stayed the same. Why would it change now? Sarah would still be there, I told myself. She had to be there. Otherwise this was all for nothing. I could handle being scared, as long as it meant getting her back. I had to get her back. Her absence in my life was like a missing appendage, the memories of her a phantom limb that ached incessantly. She was there. I could feel her somehow, as unlikely as that sounds. I felt like with every step I got closer. The sounds rose up loudly around me from every direction as I entered the midway. First one man shouting, “STEP RIGHT UP, STEP RIGHT UP, TRY YOUR HAND AT THE DARTS! You sir! You look like a man who knows how to win, how about taking a toss at the red balloons!?” then a woman asking, “How'd you like to win a prize? Get the ball in the barrel and take home the bloody big bear!” She pointed up and I caught myself following her finger and looking at the giant stuffed bears which hung suspended from the ceiling. Each one had a noose around its neck, with eyes red and bulging. The eyes looked real, though, and I could have sworn I saw one swollen bear-face look down at me, pleading and terrified. Red fluid seeped from their mouths and dripped down onto the counter below. I dropped my gaze and reminded myself not to get distracted. Everything here was meant to steer you from your goal, nothing was as it seemed. Keeping my head down, I continued to walk deeper into the midway. “Cotton candy!” “Hot dogs!” “Get your ride tickets here! Ride the Ferris wheel with your true love by your side! A date she'll never forget!” I walked past and heard him say quietly from behind me, “She will stay here. Sarah will live and die and live again, here. Always here. She will stay here. You will stay here.” My heart nearly stopped in my chest. That definitely wasn't supposed to happen. The carnival workers were not supposed to talk out of character to visitors. They were always supposed to stay in character. I tried to control myself but ended up running over to him, fighting my anger and hatred and fury and pushing it down deep, stopping myself somehow from leaping over the counter and grabbing the man. “What did you say??” His mouth opened and closed like a gold fish but he said nothing. “What the FUCK did you just say!?” “Ride the salt and pepper shaker! You'll get all mixed up until you don't know up from down!!” “No. Sarah. You said something about Sarah. I’m looking for her. Please, just help me. Tell me where she is.” “Why, Lady Luck? She's just around the corner at the spinning wheel of chance. Place your bets there and win your heart’s desire!” I nearly screamed at him but managed to restrain myself. It would serve no purpose other than wasting time. I checked my watch and saw I had already been inside for half an hour. The time was going fast. The man was just another distraction, meant to keep me here longer, to keep me from my goal. To keep me from Sarah. Moving on, I kept my head on a swivel, looking every possible direction, checking every face. None of them were hers. Far ahead in the distance, I saw the giant red canopy tent at the center of the fair. I hoped I wouldn’t have to go in there. That’s where all the most horrifying sights were, according to those few who had seen it and escaped. The cannibal killer clowns in their little car that drove around and stopped randomly, piling out and murdering and subsequently devouring whoever was nearest and then clambering back in and driving off. A polar bear on a unicycle that would cause similar damage during its rampages, when it got inevitably bored of riding around. Chainsaw-wielding trapeze artists that swung down unexpectedly and cut you in half before you could even think to run away. And further in, at the very center, who knew? No one had seen it. Only the most extreme thrill-seekers tried for the canopy. It was reserved for the most dedicated and experienced. I shuddered to think of going in there. I had planned to avoid it at all costs. I checked my watch again. This was taking longer than expected. The place was drawing out every second of my time, even the ground beneath my feet was sticky and muddy and each step forward came with an increasing effort. My eyes darted around, looking in every booth and at every carnival worker. There were no other guests so that made it a little bit easier. I walked past more carnival barkers and booths. After walking around a corner, I was confronted by a man shouting in my face, “TEST YOUR STRENGTH!” He was huge, wearing a leather vest and holding a massive sledge hammer in both hands. Turning around, he swung it and hit the bell, causing the machine to light up and ding incessantly. Turning away from him, I scanned the faces of every carnival worker standing behind their counters. A ring toss booth was just ahead, and I began to walk towards it, thinking the woman inside looked a bit like Sarah, when I heard the voice of the man behind me. He had silently followed me, and now stood directly behind me with the hammer held high over his head. “SHE IS OURS!” The sledge hammer came down hard and I ducked out of the way just in time. My heart pounding, I stumbled to the ground, off balance. I rolled away as a second swing of the giant hammer nearly missed me again. I got up to my feet as quickly as I could and backed away from the man. He was pursuing me still, and I turned and ran. The muddy ground caused me to slip as I turned a corner to get away from him, and found myself heading towards the giant canopy at the center of the fair. I checked my watch. Still nearly an hour until sunrise. Plenty of time. No. Can’t think like that. You’ve wasted half your time and you haven’t found her yet. That means you’re behind. You need to spot her quick and get her the hell out of here. I felt myself struggling to think clearly as adrenaline took over and something else as well, an unfamiliar feeling like the naïve recklessness of a young man, which I no longer was. I wanted to live, and yet I found myself abandoning reason and self-preservation the more time I spent there. And yet, the giant canopy tent drew me in like a moth to a flame and I went to it, no longer looking at the other carnival workers. Every part of me was saying to go inside. That’s where she would be. Looking back, I saw the man with the sledge hammer was no longer pursuing me, and I breathed a sigh of relief. Maybe he was getting reinforcements, though, and that would be trouble. Feeling like a piece of iron filament being drawn towards a powerful magnet, I walked towards the huge crimson red canopy tent. Up this close it was obvious how massive the thing was now. Inside would be a space lit up with lights and full of morbid wonders and curiosities. It loomed before me, dwarfing me in size and I realized I was standing right before the entrance, every part of me saying to go inside, to look and see what could be found within. And then I heard her voice. “Try your luck at the spinning wheel, sir?” I stopped in my tracks, afraid to turn and look, afraid it wouldn’t really be her, that it would be just some trick again, some attempt to stall me. But then I did and it was her. It was really her. No mistaking it. She gave a shaky smile and lifted her hand to wave. I walked over to the booth and looked at her, my eyes filling with tears. “I missed you so much,” was all I could say. “I missed you too. Every day I missed you.” And then some other force took over and her smile widened like it was being pulled at the corners by unseen strings, causing her to show her teeth. Her voice changed and became that of a carnival barker trying to grab your attention as you pass by. “TRY YOUR LUCK AT THE SPINNING WHEEL, SIR!?” I was stunned, and didn’t know what to say for a second. “Sarah… Let’s get out of here. Come on. Take my hand.” Reaching over the counter, I saw her eyes flash back to her own for a second, but then they became full of hatred and murder. She hissed at me like a cat, her eyes now crimson-red. Then she swiped at me with her nails, scratching my arm badly and leaving four long gashes there. She attacked my face next, flailing at it with quick lashes in succession, leaving me bleeding from her nails. I recoiled, terrified and in pain. Blood poured from my face and my arm and I was suddenly having trouble seeing out of one eye. My vision was turning red and then black on that side. “Run,” she said, her face turning back into her own for an instant. “You can’t save me. Just run. If you stay past sunrise you’ll be stuck here with the rest of us.” And then her eyes flicked back to that crimson red shade and I saw her laughing at me. “You can’t save her. She’s ours now.” Other carnival workers started to come out from behind their booths and were now stalking towards me. A clown popped his head out from the giant canopy tent nearby and then when he saw me came running with a duck-legged stride in his oversized floppy shoes. Following behind him was a man on giant stilts, who had to duck to come through the doorway. He was juggling bowling pins that were set ablaze and threw one at me, nearly missing my face with it. Sarah stayed stubbornly put where she was, as if the carnival knew that I wanted her to chase me, to come after me. But no, it had plenty of others to do that. I backed away at the sight of the blood-thirsty carnies approaching, then turned and ran back towards the entrance, my instinct to survive suddenly taking over. Running half-blind through the midway, I saw more carnival workers leaving their booths, following after me, their eyes blank and zombie-like. Looking back, I saw dozens of them now in pursuit, breaking into a slow jog and then running as they followed after me. Increasing my pace, I felt my heart booming in my chest, sweat pouring down my face. My eyes were wide and terrified, darting around, looking for potential threats everywhere. “Candy apple?” the elderly woman was wearing an eye patch and as she threw the boiling hot caramel sauce at me she smiled, her teeth rotten and black. Some of the liquid sugar hit my face and I screamed as it burnt me. I knew that would scar me for the rest of my life but didn’t have time to think about it. I had a moment of pity for the woman, knowing now that she was just another victim of the carnival, the same as Sarah. No one from the online forums had ever considered that the carnies were themselves past visitors who hadn’t been able to escape before sunrise. It was always assumed that they were a part of the carnival itself and had been since the start. My feet slipped in mud and I nearly fell as I raced past the man with the sledge hammer. He jumped up and began to chase after me with the others, carrying his heavy mallet in both hands and screaming at me. Up ahead I saw the turnstiles and picked up my pace, seeing the faint glimmer of a sunrise on the horizon. The clown was there, appearing out of the fog once more, and as I got closer I saw he was waiting for me. He held a small axe in his hand and chuckled when I got near. “THE CRIMSON GLOW CAN’T BE UNDONE. THE CRIMSON GLOW CAN’T BE UNDONE. THE CRIMSON GLOW CAN’T BE UNDONE.” The voices of others drawing closer from behind rose in volume joining his and I realized they were very close now. I had no choice. I would have to take my chances with the clown. I ran at him full speed, knowing I didn’t have much time left. Once the sun came up I was stuck here with the rest of them. No one was coming for me. Nobody knew I was here. The only reason I knew where Sarah had disappeared to was because of her obsession with the online forums related to the crimson carnival. She had become more and more involved until it completely took over her life, nearly ruining our relationship in the process. Then one day she had said that she was going to find the place for herself. She had left in the middle of the night, leaving me a note while I was sleeping. She had never come home after that and I had always regretted not going with her. She had even given me the coin, saying that she wanted me to go with her, to experience it alongside her. She said not to lose it. That there were only a few left out there, and that they were exceedingly rare and valuable. But now I had lost it, just like I had lost her. The fucking clown had it. I had an idea at the last second as I ran towards him. The mud slipping beneath my feet made me think of when I was a kid, playing soccer. How after scoring a goal or winning a game on a rainy day, we would slide around on the grass, in the mud, celebrating. Diving forward at full speed, I landed on my belly in the muck. It knocked the wind out of me, and since I wasn’t a kid anymore it hurt like hell, but it had the desired effect. My forward momentum took me under the turnstiles and I surprised the clown by knocking out his legs from beneath him. He went flying into the air, his axe spinning and shining in the faint light before landing a few feet away. Dozens of coins came flying out from his pockets also. They landed scattered on the ground in the mud, and I grabbed a handful of them before racing off back towards my car. I heard the clown screaming at me until his voice cut out suddenly in an instant as the sun peeked out from behind the horizon. Looking back with my one working eye, I saw that he was gone, and so was the carnival. But in my hand, the blood-red nickels from past visitors remained, proof of my visit. Same as the long red scratches on my arm and on my face. The scars and burns I would wear for the rest of my life. And yet still, staring at the muddy, bloody coins in my palm, I knew I would be back. I had no choice. JG TCC
A hacker can do everything from hijacking a corporate email account to draining millions of dollars from an online bank account.
Though many hackers may have malicious intent, some wear white hats and help companies find security holes and protect sensitive content.
Below we explore some of the many jobs a hacker can do for you.
Some parts of the web are the online equivalent of dark alleys where shady characters lurk in the shadows. Are you afraid your spouse or partner is cheating on you? There's a hacker on the dark web who can get you into her email and social media accounts; that is if you don't mind sliding past legal or ethical boundaries. These days you don't have to delve too deeply into the recesses of the dark web to find hackers — they're actually quite easy to find. For instance, you can easily hire an ethical hacker on freelancer websites. These so-called "white hats" help protect your website from malicious attacks by identifying security holes and plugging them. Other hacking sites openly advertise services of questionable legality, offering illicit access to everything from Skype and Gmail to your college grades. InsideHackers' warns in its Terms of Service that hacking is a "dangerous industry" and "very, very risky business." According to a report, by Dell's SecureWorks, 5 years ago. They found that the underground marketplace is "booming" because hackers are "extending their hours, guaranteeing their work, and expanding their offerings" to lure in customers. Whether you're in need of a hacker or just curious about the industry, here are seven hacks for sale right now and what they may cost, according to the SecureWorks report and other advertisements on the web. Note: Prices are listed in US dollars, but some hackers prefer to be paid in Bitcoin. 1. Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack: $500 - $2,500: Kaspersky Labs reports that the average price for a DDoS attack is $25 per hour. According to Kaspersky, you can pay just $50 for a five-minute attack and $3,000 to overwhelm a server, blocking legitimate users, for a whole day. The SecureWorks report quotes a slightly lower price of $50 an hour or $2,500 per day. 2. Website and Database Hack: Hire a legit hacker to provide a genuine hacker for hire service. Hack websites, hack databases, delete unwanted content from the internet, and google search results. 3. Recovery of Funds Lost to Scammers: Have you lost money to binary options, forex, or investment scam? Recover all your scammed bitcoin, stolen cryptocurrency, and money lost to cryptocurrency trading or investment scam. You can also recover money lost to a romance scam and other types of scam. 4. Social Media Account Hack: You can access any social media account including Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat, or other social media platforms, The average hacker fee for this kind of service is about $1,200. 5. Email Hack: $500 and up. While the price to hack a Gmail, Yahoo, or Hotmail account is $800, according to SecureWorks, the report pegs the fee for corporate email hacking at $950 per mailbox. Some of the popular ways of compromising an email account usually involve phishing, which requires sending phony emails masquerading as a known partner to steal usernames, passwords, financial data, or other sensitive information. Corporate email hacking drained over $676 million from company coffers in 2017, according to the FBI's Internet Crime Report. 6. Break into a cell phone: If you're looking to monitor an Android device or an iPhone, you can rely on the DataBurglar cell phone spy app to hack and monitor the phone. DataBurglar offers a lot of different features, including GPS tracking and sound recording. The app tracks the hacked phone's information even when the phone's offline, and once it's connected to the internet, all tracked info is uploaded right into your account. One of the main advantages DataBurglar offers is that you do not need to have the target phone in your hand to install the spyware app onto it. When you hire a cell phone hacker, he or she can access the phone remotely, which, according to one Quora user, could cost between $500 and $5,000 7. Grade Change: You can hire a hacker to hack a university portal and change your grades. You can also get examination questions and answers to help you prepare adequately for your examination. In addition to the above-mentioned possibilities, you can also change your transcript to make it a lot better. All you need is the right person to deliver the job. When it comes to hiring a trusted hacker, that is guaranteed to deliver all your hack requests to your satisfaction, your best bet remains DataBurglar. Email - [email protected] The original article was first published on businessinsider.com, but this is the most recent update, providing you up-to-date information.
Delete If Not Allowed. Made an app for keeping track of all your bets.
I know there are some others, but i wanted one i could have it how i wanted and be able to cast my ipad to a third screen i have during big game days to show all my bets on the screen AND auto update. Just a simple app where you put in what you bet and it'll show you if you are winning/losing but will show green/yellow/red accordingly. When you have the oveunder set it'll show the total score so you don't have to do maths as well as show you how much is remaining to hit the over, or how much is left for you to keep the under. Parlays (right now only moneyline till i get more time to make then also include spreads) will show each game in a group and show red/green/yellow for each game if you are winning/losing. Parlays also auto cycle through automatically. Made it to where you can just set it and forget it on gameday when you cast it to a tv or just have your ipad sitting there. Click autorefresh and every 3 minutes it'll refresh. As well as cycle through the parlays, so you dont have to touch the screen. Any feedback is welcome. https://i.imgur.com/PLFUUNZ.jpg https://apps.apple.com/us/app/betfolio/id1524118961
Not much information about this company, so I started writing my own research on the company. Here is the investor presentation: https://nexters.com/images/inv_info/Nexters_Investor_Presentation.pdf If want to understand the valuation of the company, the risk/reward, and the potential I need to answer the following questions:
What is Nexters Global?
SPAC is a safe bet?
Comparison with its competitors?
$1.9B is cheap or expensive?
Let's begin!
1. What is Nexters Global?
Nexters Global is a fast-growing mobile game development company with $450 million gross revenue* (2020), 85 million total game installs, 5.4 Million monthly active users, with 10x growth of revenue in the last 2 years. Already profitable with $110 million net profit in 2020. The management has more than 10 years of experience in creating games. Located in Cyprus (Europe) with roots in Russia (a very strong IT region). They are well known for being in Game Development since early 2005 in the epicenter of the web, social and mobile game development. https://preview.redd.it/juhbhhuwhmg61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=529a0e927aa3bc3205430d97204d3d625f36fc8d Since the launch, the company has proven that it can develop, publish and use marketing to scale its games. With 37% of its revenue coming from the US/Canada, 23% from Europe, 19% from Asia it is already an international company. \In the investor presentation Nexters Global states 310 million net revenue, as at the* sec.govreports it is more common (example) to use thegross revenuefor gaming companies as their base metrics. That's why here and below I’m usinggross revenue. Please see the spreadsheet below with a comparison to other companies. Further plans are: https://preview.redd.it/t9kdphd0img61.png?width=994&format=png&auto=webp&s=b70e92455e253033e99a91b17b0a1f85012e1e5b
To increase the revenue of existing games (basically, double the revenue in 3 years).
Launch new titles in 2021: 3 new games announced
Working on the sequel of their best selling game "Hero Wars 2".
Use cash to acquire other game developers with great games to amplify revenues using their expertise and marketing/production capabilities to make global hits.
2. SPAC is a safe bet?
There are so many SPACs, that we should be very selective on what we choose to buy. To do that we need to check if the business is real. There are different kind of risky SPAC’s on the market:
Without product
Without revenue
Without an addressable market
Without proof that they can scale
We need to verify that Nexters Global is not on that list. Let’s have a look at the company: The product? Web, Social, Mobile Games. To check if their numbers are real simply open the game page in App Store and Google Play store. Android Apps by NEXTERS GLOBAL LTD on Google Play Nexters Global LTD Apps on the App Store The top game has more than 50,000,000 installs with more than a million positive reviews and an average rating of 4.6. With other games/stores combined, it correlates with the company's stated 85 million installs. https://preview.redd.it/jwh51gm2img61.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=428ec2dc85a4a6c1d51c67aa8fa1f7876edd3dab I like that I can see the numbers myself, and also can "touch" the product and how it works. it increases my confidence in owning the stock. Actually, I have been playing their top-grossing game Hero Wars for several months last year. And I loved it... loved it so much that I’ve spent around ~1000 dollars within 3 months. And I’ve seen players that spent much much more than me (higher ranked, had much more power and ranks). And there were so many players that they had to add new servers each week, or even daily. The first impression is that I really like the product. I see how it works. The revenue. It's huge. In the SPAC world, there are companies that can’t make revenue but predict that their revenue will go up 10-20-50x times in 3-5 years. Usually, such companies are SCAM as they mislead investors with revenue that will never happen. On another side, Nexters Global has already $450 million in revenue with a $110M profit. And the growth rate is +177% YoY. And even the slowdown in growth means the actual increase in revenue substantially, just by the magic of the compound growth. I like the numbers very much here. The addressable market How big is the addressable market? The World’s 2.7 Billion Gamers Spent$175 Billion on Games in 2020; The Market Will Surpass $200 Billion by 2023. So Nexters Global is well-positioned in expanding market. https://preview.redd.it/tf41au04img61.png?width=888&format=png&auto=webp&s=7547a1d3c2c8da43554a655d9b32bb4aaf4f2d97 Revenue geography shows that it is also diversified well. The company has proven that it can generate revenue all around the world, not just in its local market. That is very important in order to calculate the valuation of the company. https://preview.redd.it/sxq08qg5img61.png?width=362&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9b771d632268efb31d96d57c831d61d8caf12f But how long Nexters can generate revenue? Unlike the traditional PC gaming, where the peak of sales occurs after the launch of the game and then shrinks a lot, in the online mobile game market - games get updates each month/quarter to engage customers and make them stay in the game longer. Games with great engagement + marketing resources can stay on top charts for many years. You just reinvest part of your revenue into marketing to earn even more. It works for games with high revenue per player (ARPPU). Nexters Presentation: $106 - Average net bookings per paying user(2) (Q4’20) https://preview.redd.it/jsqcmby6img61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=f96f6ef490ee2b16cf6ca01e8508df578bfdd302 Percentage of paying users increases. Average net booking increases. With the 6% of paying users and $106 net payment - it is quite easy to calculate that you earn $6.36 from any user that downloads the app, so you can spend on advertisement a lot of money and you will earn even more. When you have 277% revenue growth in 2019, 177% in 2020 it won’t just stop growing. Next year double-digit growth of revenue is highly probable. From a statistical behavior the growth slowdown to zero is very unlikely. If we take examples of other super-hit games from Supercell (Clash of Clans) and Playrix (Gardenscapes). Example: Playrix did continue to grow since 2016 explosive revenue withadding +41% YoY growth in 2018 +35% in 2019. https://preview.redd.it/so9ijp08img61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6acbdf41374f89c045bb07c4b4e5f7dc235bf9 Another example: Supercell's revenue continued to grow at least 2 years after the revenue explosion before slowing down. https://preview.redd.it/tjjuf159img61.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=01116616d83bbeeb34bbe98da012d22c3964f5d5 The growth Great games could continue to grow. Nexters Global estimates their net revenue to reach $562 million dollars. That equals to ~$802 million gross revenue in 2023. And the company is valued at just 1.9B now. Re-think that.📷 This chart also shows that they project only +10.5% YoY growth in revenue in its current games after this year's gain. Which I think is too conservative considering the examples above. I understand that they’ve chosen the strategy not to mislead investors and should stay conservative, but I think they will easily beat their own estimates and 20-25% growth is much more realistic. The good thing is that we can track their performance in terms of downloads and revenue in stores. We can stay ahead and know the data earlier than official numbers come out, which brings another level of transparency for investors.
Kismet Acquisition One Corp company
The company is led by CEO and Director Ivan Tavrin, the founder and Principal of investment firm Kismet Capital Group. Tavrin previously served as the CEO of PJSC MegaFon, Russia's second largest telecommunications operator, and before that, he founded UTH Russia, one of the largest independent media broadcasting groups in Russia. Kismet Acquisition Two plans to target the internet and technology sectors operating in Europe, including Russia, as well as businesses established by founders with Russian origins. Credit Suisse, BofA Securities and LionTree Advisors served as financial and capital markets advisors to Kismet Acquisition One Corp. Advisors look good to me. The CEO's background and experience too. Additionally, he was one of the shareholders in the recently launched Russian IPO "OZON" marketplace. Which is now +120% up. The only thing that sounds scary here is the word “Russia” everywhere. Is there an unwanted geopolitical risk? From the legal point of view, every entity is registered under British Law jurisdictions (Cyprus, BVI). So, basically, there shouldn't be any problems. Well... they would better be in the US as many investors don’t like foreign companies. But there are great examples of super successful Supercell and Rovio that were NON-US too. And we know that the Russian Tech-sector is high qualified (Google Founder - Sergey Brin, Pavel Durov - Telegram, Vitalik Buterin - Etherium, and even Russian Hackers is a “meme”). And as I said before their business looks crystal clear, anybody can check their metrics so they can’t fraud the data, unlike, for example, Luckin Coffee did in China. Therefore, this kind of risk is eliminated.
3. Comparison with its competitors?
Let's talk about numbers. I’ve tried to compare the game developer to its direct competitors. I've selected only companies with major mobile game-driven revenue. Here is the full spreadsheet access: Nexters Global Comparison I’ve marked the concerning metric with yellow and red, Good metric with green, Superb one with dark-green color. https://preview.redd.it/tmsosbtaimg61.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b50cd7a1a54115bb496849c43b3611094fc6309 Please take time to read the numbers and come back after. Update!With the latest news that Electronic Arts buys GLU Mobile with +39% premium from the market - the sector is officially undervalued. Thoughts on Nexters Global
Nexters is big enough in terms of revenue
The MAU (Monthly Average Users) is not very big. While you can consider that as a “minus” that's actually the sign of a young company, with the opportunity to attract more users “cheaper” (with high efficiency). When you already big and you have hundreds of million players, you have to spend more and more money on user acquisition.
No diversification. That’s a red flag. Hearing of 3 titles coming next year + Hero Wars 2 to be developed. And the idea of acquisition of small developers with excellent games to amplify their revenue 10-100 times promoting it around the World is the Next goal for Nexters. This will bring diversification.
Remember that Supercell (also a European company, HQ in Finland) with its only best selling game was sold to Tencent at a $10.5 billion valuation. This "Hero Wars" game is currently following its path (in terms of growth numbers & revenue).
Games are high gross margin projects. I assume this gross margin from the cost of revenue is: AppStore/Google Play 30% commission + spending on maintaining the Servers. That brings me to the industry average of 65%
Marketing spending numbers are rational (20-40% zone), in order to stay profitable and to maintain modest growth.
It's already a large scalable company. No “company growth issues” seen through this data. Sign of good management here.
Unusually high net income seeing here. Assumption: Research & Development costs /Administrative spending / Sales and Marketing is much lower compared to other US companies. Probably they benefit from HQ being outside of the US. That should affect the company multiplicators (P/E) positive.
With not very high US Market penetration - the opportunity still there.
Game reviews/rating is essential in mobile games: The higher-rated games = the cheaper is the cost of user acquisition. The longer players stay in-game. The “4.5” rating tells me that customers of this company are very satisfied.
Fascinating growth. Very young company. The slowdown in growth is expected but compound growth is still very probable.
Estimated Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) is 25%. Which would bring the company ~$802 million revenue in 2023.
Is the company valued right? It's more profitable in comparison to its competitors, its double-triple digit growth company with all signs of the trend to continue.
The company is honest with its estimates and setting very realistic numbers. Other SPACs prefer to predict 10,20,50x revenue in the future even without proving they can scale. This company is doubling-tripling every year and shows estimates of 25% annual growth each year.
I ended up with numbers: P/S = 4.19, P/E = 17.27. This valuation seems just right with current earnings and the sector, but not with the future growth. As there is a Hot trend in gaming and with outstanding YoY growth could be worth much much more.
4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?
The current price of $KSMT (“GDEV”) is $10.15 which represents a $1.9B valuation. Before the deal is completed the price cannot be valued less than $10 due to SPAC rules. So there is simply no downside risk at this point.. But can it go up? What is fair valuation? Is there a risk of a selloff from shareholders? How rich the valuation can be in terms of P/E (Price to Sales ratio)? First, let's find out the risk of insider selling: Here is the sec report: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1814824/000121390021005589/ea134294ex99-1_kismet.htm The Transaction is expected to deliver up to $150 million in cash to the Company’s balance sheet before advisor fees and/or redemptions by Kismet Acquisition One Corp. current shareholders, with proceeds expected to be used for general working capital purposes and potential acquisitions. Existing shareholders of Nexters will receive a cash payment of up to $150 million pro-rata to their pre-money shareholdings, and will roll approximately 92% of their holdings into the combined company while agreeing to a 12 month lock-up (subject to certain exceptions). In addition, the founders and the management will receive 20.0 million Earn-Out shares over 3 years (with 50% of the Earn-Out released at $13.50 VWAP and 50% released at $17.00 VWAP), also subject to a 12 month lock-up. The Transaction will be funded by approximately $250 million held in trust by Kismet Acquisition One Corp., subject to any redemptions, as well as the additional $50 million investment by the SPAC Sponsor, Kismet Capital Group, via an affiliate. The investors will have a 12-month lock-up on selling + they get benefits on reaching the valuation 35% and 70% higher from the current price. This means that there will be no insider selling in the near term, which is very positive signal. Acquisitions Nexters Global plans to use proceeds in M&A (buying small game development studios with great projects that just don’t have enough cash, expertise, or right developer team) to benefit from its situation in order to launch great games worldwide. https://preview.redd.it/xhypgzqfimg61.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=642c03fecbb851984527c46774beb0ecc44eba0a It is a common mistake to assume that great games can be run by small studios or individuals, as in 2020 you need at least a couple of million dollars spent on marketing to understand if the project is worth it, or not. Small developers can’t afford it. On the other side, Nexters can benefit from it really well. If they are successful in that, we could see 10+ new titles in the future. That could diversify its game portfolio, making this company a safe bet for Hedge funds and other market players, driving future growth. “Hero Wars 2” game announcement. Hero Wars is the top-grossing game, which generates most of the revenue. With “Hero Wars 2” announcement the company can benefit a lot.. Usually, game sequels can do very well, as they are easier to promote, finding their “fan base” from the beginning. This could create a new source of income, work as a diversification, launch the new cycle of the revenue stream for many years ahead. Partnership with Playrix founders Here is another thing that I want to focus on: Bukhman brothers acquired a 43% stake in Nexters in 2018 They are founders of “Playrix” - a private mobile game developer company, currently valued at $7B(valued in Q1 2020). Now more likely ~11B as their revenue increased 1.5 times during 2020. Please read these articles in Bloomberg and Forbes first:
Summary from the articles: Cashing out (selling out to Tencent or Activision Blizzard) is not interesting right now. We are growing every year. Game industry multiplicators of public companies were priced wrong . This year has changed it. And this trend will continue as top games can grow for many many years, reengaging users with updates. Playrix is not interested in IPO's at this valuation. They want to wait until the market changes and start pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)? I can assume that Playrix founders are interested in the long-term success of Nexters Global SPAC-merger in order to change how markets price the gaming companies as they want to bring Playrix to an IPO in the future. They want to wait until the market starts pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)? So, for the Bukhman brothers who own 43% shares, Nexters Global is a long-term play company. They don’t want/need to cash out. I also think that at some point, Tencent could just buy 20-30% of the company through the open market (buying shares). Why? Because it is common for Tencent to buy a stake in gaming companies that earn a lot of cash and priced at these valuations. https://preview.redd.it/uphpbubcimg61.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f35889049fa9302786bf65d1b83f02a92d71eef
Summary
In my personal opinion, this is a great company with a bright future. Valuation seems reasonable and there is a big upside if any of those happens:
Company starts to actively search for acquisition targets (we will see from press-releases)
Company launches "Hero Wars 2" title
The company beats its own low guidance estimates (which I think the most probable)
Company launches more titles which enter “Top ranks” in AppStore/Google Play store.
Aggressive Tencent/Other major Gaming Holdings buying.
At this exact moment, the fair valuation of the company will move to $3-4 billion dollar. (+100% upside). At this right moment of the time as the price is near $10 there is literally no risk in a pre-merger state, as SPAC can’t go below $10 price by its concept. Disclosure: At the moment of writing this article I do have a position in $KSMT, that is not more than 10% of my entire portfolio. I do not plan to sell at any nearest time in future. Stocks are risk assets and this is not investment advice.
My neighbor had air trapped in jars. Last night, I broke into his home to free it.
If air had a will of its own, it couldn't have thrown itself any harder against my window pane. That's what I remember thinking when I woke up to raindrops carried by strong gusts of wind repeatedly clashing against my bedroom window at two thirty in the morning. There hadn't been a single cloud in the sky all day and when I'd gone to bed earlier, it had been cold but not stormy at all. In fact, it had seemed almost as though the air outside itself had frozen and was still in place, unable to move or even shiver. Sitting up in bed, I noticed I had to go to the bathroom. I slid out from underneath my blanket and staggered into the hallway. There was a window at the end of the corridor too. I almost walked past it without paying it any mind, but just as I did, I realized that something was wrong. I couldn't hear the wind howling or rattling the frame around it anymore. I carefully opened the window to look outside only to be met with icy cold air. Cold air, but no wind. Frowning, I shut it again and made my way over into the bathroom. After I was done, I inspected the window in there. I stuck my head out of it only to realize it was the very same as the one in the hallway. The bathroom and the bedroom were on the same side of the house, just separated by a small junk room. Their windows opened to the same side though, so I should have been able to witness the storm blowing outside my bedroom from the bathroom as well. I figured maybe it had simply stopped very abruptly so I rushed over into the bedroom to check. When I heard the wind and rain clashing against the glass pane though, I knew something was wrong. With bated breath, I reached out and tentatively opened the window. The gust of wind that forced its way into my house was so strong that it almost knocked me to the ground. I stumbled and grabbed onto the edge of my table to keep my balance. In just a second, it was all over though. The chilly air that had flooded my room stopped stirring and for some reason I did not feel like I was alone anymore. At first I thought it was just the open window, but when I straightened up and let my gaze wander the room, I spotted something bright and shiny on my desk. It was a person–a tiny, shimmering person hardly any taller than the pencil they sat next to. A gasp of shock died in my throat when they moved. I reached for one of the books resting on my table, a suitable weapon against a threat this small, and I held it up in front of my chest like a shield. With shaking knees, I bent down to get a better look at the creature. The person, who had now risen to its full yet not very impressive height, looked to be a man with bleach blond hair and light skin. I couldn't tell if he had an actual body or not–his form seemed to flicker and waver like a candle in the wind. He was staring up at me with a look akin to that of a deer in the headlights, ready to flee at any second. Still apprehensive but not wanting to scare him off, I slowly lowered the book. The tiny man's shoulders dropped in relief but were soon shaken by silent sobs and cries. The air in the room began to whirl around me again, giving off a howl I can only describe as a fusion of a person weeping and a raging storm. Papers on my desk were sent flying off, the pencil rolled down and landed on the floor and the alarm clock on my nightstand was knocked down. Ignoring the panic and the sting of the cold, I dropped my book and reached out for the wispy figure, offering it my hand. I hadn't expected him to climb up on it, but that's what he did. At least it appeared to calm him down. When he stopped crying, the storm eased and the chill got milder. I lifted him up to face me. Even though I could feel his feet on my palm he was incredibly light; it was almost like holding an empty plastic cup. I swallowed, fumbling for words. What's there to say in a situation like this? I figured since this couldn't get any weirder, I gave him a gentle shove with my finger, just to see what he'd do. He fell over. "Oh God, I'm so sorry," I stammered. I tried to pick him up again with my other hand, but he gestured for me to stay away. "What are you?" I finally pressed out. Now that I'd broken that barrier of silence, the words started to sputter out of him. He was stuttering and at first, I could hardly understand what he was saying at all. It was like he was trying to get it all out so fast that he couldn't focus on stringing the sentences together properly. "He made me kill him!" That was the first thing I heard him say clearly. Despite him being so tiny, it sounded like he was talking right next to my ear. His voice was a panicked, shaken whisper. "I never wanted to hurt him, I swear, but if I hadn't done what he told me, he would have killed my sisters." He had to stop to catch his breath, but it only took him a second or so. "He's had us trapped for weeks now. You can see what he's done to me, but my sisters…" He was interrupted by his own sobs, but I could hear him try to speak up again through his tears. "It's okay," I whispered, placing my other hand behind his back as if to shield him from something I couldn't see. He went on in that same hushed, frightened tone, his speech just slow enough for me to comprehend though he was clearly struggling. "You have to do something to help us, please! I only did what he told me because I couldn't see my sisters suffer any longer… the things he did to them… he hurt them, he cut them…" He was having trouble breathing now. I could see his tiny chest rapidly rising and falling and his hands wandered up to his neck and remained hovering above it, like he was unsure of what to do with them. "Shhh," I uttered, hoping to soothe his nerves. "Who hurt your sisters?" "The man who lives next door to you." The shiny man had finally caught himself a bit. He was breathing normally again, his voice raspy and weary from having cried so much. "You were the only one to let me in… I tried it with some of the other houses on my way here too, but nobody seemed to notice…" "I'm a light sleeper," I explained with a half-smile as I went to shut the window, the flickering shape still sitting on my palm. "So you're saying my neighbor captured you and forced you to kill someone? Who?" "I don't know… it was another man, older guy, lives in a really large house on the other side of town. He said I had to kill him and if I'd try to flee or disobey somehow, he'd… keep doing what he does to my sisters. He said he'd make sure I'd never see them again." "How'd you kill him?" "I slipped into his body through his mouth when he was laughing. Then I made him choke." He said this with such a grim expression I almost expected him to break into tears again. "I swear I didn't want to." He looked up at me with wide eyes. "I believe you," I replied. In regards to my quick acceptance of this situation despite its strangeness, I have to admit I was partly convinced I was dreaming at that point. The man straightened up and grabbed onto my thumb as if to put emphasis into his following plea. "Can you help us?" "I can try." "Will you?" I sighed. "I will. What do you need me to do?" "You just have to go over there and get us out. He's been keeping us in jars. We could leave if it weren't for the way he's set them up. He's been using spells to bind us. We're not actually small, this is just a form he's pressed us into so he can hold us prisoner like he does. I'd thought the kind of magic he's using died with the old gods a long time ago, but he's gotten a hold of it some way." My head was spinning. None of what he had just said made any sense to me. He seemed to see it in the way I was frowning at him since he hurried to go on. "You only have to break the jars. We cannot touch them, but you can. The glass they're made of has been enchanted, so once it's all destroyed, everything will go back to normal for us. We'll be free." "So that's it? I just have to break into his house and shatter a bunch of jars?" I said this with some relief, seeing as it sounded rather manageable. "I can do that." "Thank you." The response came out as more of a sigh than anything else. He stared at me with a thoughtful look on his face. "I'm Ariel." "The house… It's the one to the right from yours. He lives on his own and he hasn't left his house since the day he bound us to the jars. He doesn't work, I think. He'll either be in the living room on the ground floor or down in the basement most of the day. That's where he keeps us. In the basement." His form flickered, almost like he was shivering. "How will I get in? Is he asleep right now?" I asked hopefully. "He doesn't sleep. Or maybe he does and he just keeps one eye open somehow, I don't know. My sisters and I… we've all tried to flee at one point but it's not easy. He jumps at every noise, and when he catches us trying to do anything he'll always take it out on Fei." He paused. "She's my little sister. The youngest one of them." I sat the shimmering man down on my desk again and started to put on some clothes. "You're taking a large risk by looking for help then." "I know." Ariel walked up to the edge of the table which I was leaning against when I pulled on my pants. He took a leap and grabbed onto my shirt only to climb up and stand on my shoulder. "But if this goes on for any longer, we'll all be dead either way." It was even colder outside. Snow covered the ground and I stomped my way through it with the shiny man in my hand. There was not a soul out in the streets anymore. Everything was silent. "Shouldn't I try to get down into the basement right away?" I asked in a hushed tone. The glowing figure didn't respond but gave a light shrug. "It's around the back, isn't it? Is there a window?" "I think so," he replied. "Yes, yes, I've seen it. You'd fit." We sneaked around the fence and eventually reached the back of my neighbor's house. Glancing over my shoulder, I could see my tracks in the snow. I hoped I could somehow wipe them out on my way back. The window was small, but large enough for me to climb in. It was shut though. I crouched down and began fumbling around with it, trying to find a way to get it open, but I knew it was futile. On top of that, my hands had already grown so cold that my fingers were almost completely numb. "Wait," Ariel told me. I turned to see that he was standing on top of the snow, or rather floating above it. His feet left not the tiniest print in it when he walked up to the window. "I can do this. But you have to listen first. The second you're in there, you go straight for the jars. He's going to hear us for sure. If we're lucky he won't be close. Anyways, break the empty one first. That's mine. If I'm free I can… I mean, you'll still have to break the other ones. Just do mine first." I told him I understood and he nodded. Stepping up to the window, he bowed down to examine it. "With these old houses, the rooms are never really sealed," he muttered, sounding like he was explaining it more to himself than to me. "There's always a tiny little… crack." With that, his form suddenly vanished. It was like he had been sucked in from somewhere behind the closed window. My jaw dropped when I saw him appear on the other side. I watched his light flicker and float about through the milky glass until I suddenly heard the faintest little click. The window moved up a sliver, just enough for me to push my fingers in and carefully slide it open. Ariel was waiting for me in mid-air, looking around frantically and motioning for me to stay quiet. I tried to make as little noise as possible, but when my heavy snow boots met with the basement floor, the silence was broken. Ariel flinched but didn't stop me, only whispering a little "Go!" as I instantly made for the shelf in the corner of the large room. Before I even reached it, I could already hear somebody shouting upstairs. It was the voice of my neighbor. I had never bothered to learn his name but I did recognize him. His slew of curses was followed by loud steps thundering above our heads. Describing the contents of the jars I saw will take longer than the actual time I took to look at them. The first one I got my hands on held a tiny little girl. She was sitting down and hugging her knees, her back pressed up against the glass. She hadn't so much as lifted her head upon our entrance. Without thinking, I threw the jar on the floor with all my might. The second it shattered though, the young woman inside flew up into the air, escaping the impact. She gave me an incredulous look before rushing out of sight. Remembering what Ariel had told me, I scanned the shelf for an empty jar while already reaching out for the next one. Apparently the flying man had had the same thought as he turned to me with a look of horror on his face. "It's not here!" I broke the other jar I'd grabbed and another shining woman came out. The footsteps were getting louder and louder, he was coming for us. The last jar on the shelf was a much smaller one and it contained an even smaller person, too. The sister inside was a child, I could tell as much taking just one look at her. She was bleeding from her back. I could make out two tiny pieces of blue tissue on the bottom of the jar right next to her feet. I quickly leaned in to get a closer look only to realize it was a pair of butterfly wings. There was still some skin stuck to where they had once connected to her back. I dropped the jar mostly out of shock. When it hit the ground it cracked, but it didn't shatter. I had to bend down, pick it up and smash it down with full force for it to break. And then the door to the basement at the top of the staircase sprang open. My neighbor was staring at me with wide, confused eyes. He wasn't an evil-looking guy. You wouldn't expect him to tear a little girl's butterfly wings out if you saw him. "You," was the first thing he said. He didn't sound angry, just puzzled. Then he looked down and his eyes fell onto the broken jars and Ariel beside me. "No," he uttered. "No, no, no, what are you doing?" His voice had risen to a scream. He hastily staggered down the stairs and I saw he was clutching something in his left hand. I think he'd expected me to head for the window again since it took him by surprise when I lunged at him, trying to reach for the jar. He stumbled backwards at the very last moment. "Don't you–" he hissed, swiftly moving around me and grabbing me by the hair. I struggled, still trying to get ahold of Ariel's cage, but he placed it on the washing machine which stood right beside us. He dragged me away from it, shooting the shimmering man hovering next to me a dirty glance. "I'm so fucking stupid," he muttered. "Just you wait." Turning to me, he began to speak in a slightly softer voice. Even his grip on my hair loosened a little. "I don't want to hurt you. You live next door, right? Please, go home. Just leave, please trust me." "Why are you doing this?" I whimpered. "Because they're not like us, don't you get it? Can't you see what they could do if we let them run free?" He moved his hands down to my shoulders, shaking me a little as though to chase some bad influence out of my body. That's all he said before I kicked him in the shin. He let out a cry of pain and I dashed forward, grabbing the jar from the washing machine and hurling it against the wall with all my might. The last thing I heard before the howling of wind filled my ears was my neighbor screaming something like "no" or "don't". That was just mere seconds before the objects in the room were swept off their shelves and began whirling around. I saw bottles, loose pieces of wet clothing and stashed-away household appliances fly by right in front of me. Miraculously, none of them hit me. It was like the storm was avoiding me. The wind grew colder and stronger by the second. I heard a man scream somewhere within it. I figured it was my neighbor but I couldn't see anything anymore–there must have been snow coming in through the window since now, flakes of white were dancing amidst the chaos. Some of the objects thrown around were broken by the sheer force working on them, but even those small, sharp pieces didn't come near me. I thought I could see streaks of blood, literal drops of thick red blood being dragged through the air, but I was in too much shock to even scream. And then, suddenly, everything came to a halt. Boxes, broken glass and chunks of plastic all dropped to the floor, soon to be covered by a fine layer of snow that settled on top of it all. In the center of this mess, the man who had held Ariel captive was lying motionless on the ground, his eyes wide open, like his stomach. Above him stood Ariel himself, but tall this time, much taller than me. His shape remained wispy and strangely luminescent, but he looked so much stronger now, so much less helpless. He turned to me with a thin smile on his lips. He glanced down at himself, gesturing to his stretched body and his smile grew. "I bet you regret this," he began, sounding slightly amused. "Well, you don't have to. You're a good person. Thank you so, so much. We'll never forget what you've done for us tonight." He walked towards me and suddenly picked me up, effortlessly, the way you would a child. He carried me up the stairs and all the way through the house until we were outside. I was too dazed to do or say anything. My head was aching. "Don't worry," Ariel said softly. "You haven't unleashed some kind of evil tonight, you barely put a force of nature back where it belongs. My sisters and I, we've always been free. We don't belong in jars, no matter how dangerous some people might think us. This guy, he read a few books and thought he had to save humanity or something, but see, you can't control nature. You have tsunamis, earthquakes, avalanches… storms." We were out in the snow again now and he carefully sat me down. He still had his arms around me, hugging me like he wanted to comfort me but didn't know how. "And you have to live with all of that, you can't avoid it or control it. The earth doesn't want to kill you though, the earth loves you people a lot." He finally let go of me and took a step back. "This is really awkward. Everything's okay though, I promise. He wasn't a good person. He thought he could do all these things to us just because we aren't human… so I promise you didn't assist me in killing an innocent person. Will you be okay?" I didn't respond. What's there to say in a situation like this? "Alright," he muttered. "You should go home now. My sisters have left already and I won't stay for long. But I need to do something to his house first, okay?" He paused, waiting for me to answer but I still couldn't. "Okay," he finally said. He gently placed his hands on my shoulders and turned me around, proceeding to walk me over to my front door. "Again, thank you. And I'm sorry if I scared you earlier." I plopped down in the snow with my eyes still large and my heart pounding in my chest. I watched as Ariel trudged over to the other house again. He pulled his legs up into the air, but instead of falling to the ground, he began to float. He started growing even larger, but as his form was stretching and rising, his shape began to waver until it gradually became one with the night sky. The storm that destroyed my neighbor's house took place when I was safe inside my own. It laid waste to the building completely. Any traces of me having been there were wiped out and I was left with the strangest feeling. I would have gladly believed it all to be a dream but the next morning, the house was still in ruins. Who knows, maybe it actually was a dream and the storm was simply a huge coincidence. I went outside because a bunch of my other neighbors were standing around talking. I haven't really done anything today because I'm so dazed. But when I went to take a walk earlier, I swear I heard the wind whisper "I owe you" over and over again. X
Alright. Hear me out autists. We all know bears are gay. But with TSLA shares reaching an ATH of $816.99, it sure seems like its fundamentals are completely divorced from reality. And the media analysts have been pounding on TSLA for seemingly years now. So is this a good company to be a gay bear on? Or Nah? (edit: TSLA ATH now @ $884 lol)
On 7 Jan 2020, Royal Bank of Canada admitted that "There is no graceful way to put this other than to say we got TSLA's stock completely wrong" and upgraded TSLA from $339 to $700. And on 6 Jan 2020, Morgan Stanley upgraded their TSLA price target to $810 when just 18 months ago they announced their comically low price target of $10 (that's $2 post split) resulting in a massive rally. Did Morgan Stanley dive head first into WSB level 3 autism territory, or is there something that the uninitiated could be missing? Let's do a deep dive into Tesla the company and see if their stock really is in a bubble, or if there could be some substance behind the current insane rally.
The common FUD narrative among TSLAQ is that TSLA's $800+ billion market cap is now larger than the 10 largest auto manufacturers combined. (edit: Apparantly this is a common FUD talking point that is/was false. TSLA is/was nowhere near that level when it was touted around as so. Although it is undeniable that Tesla's market cap became more and more absurd throughout 2020)
Indeed, this is quite insane. Even without us autists doing complex calculations, a simple google search shows that they would have to sell around 65 million vehicles a year to be priced at that level. So how many vehicles did Tesla produce? Tesla announced on 2 January 2020 that they've sold a little shy of 500K vehicles for CY 2020 with plans to increase production by 50% YoY. This would ultimately bring them to 20 million vehicles produced by 2030.
20 mil by 2030. Although we all know the term "Elon Time", which refers to CEO Elon Musk casually announcing an estimate of a product and missing projected timelines by large margins, there seems to be some credibility to this statement. Back in 2014, Elon Musk gave an interview (2:28) where he stated "I feel comfortable that we'll be able to achieve at least half a million cars a year by 2020".
OK. So let's give him the benefit of the doubt. As a matter of fact, Tesla is actually building factories at breakneck speeds with construction literally running 24/7 and each of their large factories (Austin and Berlin) is said to be capable of producing up to 2 million vehicles a year. Giga Berlin which was an empty field 9 months ago is already close to finishing its outer construction layer. Obviously they plan to announce more factory constructions in the future as well. So they do seem to be on track to grow on average 50% YoY for now. But 20 million cars produced by 2030 is still massively shy of 65 million vehicles. Even with growth factored in, TSLA's stock valuation still seems insanely high. So what gives? The common explanation among the Tesla fanboys is that TSLA is a tech company, not an automotive company, so it should be valued just so.
So what is this mystical technology the fanboys speak of, and how is it being deployed in terms of profitability for Tesla? Well, it turns out that Tesla has three main technological advantages and two main revenue streams that might put them leaps and bounds ahead of competitors.
Autonomous Driving - Tesla is the current market leader in vehicle autonomy. It has over 3 billion miles logged as of April 2020. The next industry leader Waymo (owned by google) has approximately 20 million miles logged. One thing for sure is that no company will be able to catch Tesla in terms of pure data advantage within the next 4-5 years. And when it comes to Artificial Intelligence, data is king. This could be the bread and butter of Tesla. Tesla already charges customers $10k per vehicle to enable full self driving in which 25% of their customers choose the option. However, Tesla hasn't taken full profits on their books yet due to it still being in beta mode. Once they solve autonomy, an over-the-air (OTA) software update will be sent out just like how your iPhone updates and bam! now you have a self driving vehicle. Let's say Tesla charges $2k a year for a self driving vehicle that can also function as an autonomous uber driver which will help you pay down your vehicle or self driving subscription service. That's like selling two iPhone pros per every customer every year. And customers on their robotaxi network will also have to share 20% profits with Tesla. Think about this. The highest cost of ride hailing are for hourly wages. If no human is required to drive that vehicle, the cost of the ride hailing service will become insanely cheap. So cheap to the point that many people who live in cities will feel like they no longer need to own a vehicle and just call a robo taxi. People already do this in large cities! As this process accelerates, vehicles that don't have autonomy solved will lose market share dramatically every year. People who want cars will mainly want to buy a vehicle with an autonomous option, and people who don't care about owning a car will use robo taxis. If Tesla solves autonomy 4-5 years ahead of competitors, the entire auto industry will be disrupted by Tesla just like how the iPhone ended Blackberry and Nokia's dominance.
Vehicle Manufacturing - Tesla is an innovator when it comes to vehicle manufacturing technology, specifically robotics. Along with their insane factory automation process, they also have giga casters that mold car pieces quickly and efficiently that no other manufacturers have, and giant automated paint shops. This cuts down massively on labor and allows for quicker production while keeping margins high. Due to innovative technologies like these, it is estimated that Tesla's Shanghai Model 3 vehicles net around 30% profit margins, even after they've recently slashed their prices by 8%. Tesla recently slashed their Model Y price by 30% but still boast an astonishing 29% profit margin which is approximately 3 times the industry average. So even if robotaxi doesn't work out, they are still an industry leader by a large stretch in terms of profit margins. These margins will only increase after Giga Berlin is operational due to no longer having to ship vehicles across the Pacific to European customers.
Vertical Integration - Tesla is well known for its vertical integration. This is mainly due to having supply chain issues in the early days, but what this has enabled is agile production capability and larger profit margins. Due to this capability, Tesla improves components of their vehicles on the fly instead of the annual model release the traditional industry uses. Also, they don't have to share profits with suppliers or worry about constraints, delivery delays, or slow progress on contracts.
No Advertising & Dealerships - Elon Musk is a walking billboard. The media literally gives Tesla free advertisement every day. As production increases, Tesla might have to start advertising in the future. But for now it seems like Teslas are selling themselves. Tesla has literally sold 100% of the vehicles they've ever produced, and they have never advertised any of their vehicles. Also, they do not have to share profits with dealerships with direct-to-consumer sales. If their market dominance and technology superiority continues, it is bound to stay the industry leader just like apple did with its iPhones. And if they solve autonomy first which they seem on track to do so, what's more to say?
Regulatory Credits AKA Carbon Credits - This is one that TSLAQs love to bring up when it comes to Tesla profits. You see, a handful of US States enacted a law that requires manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in their state which will earn them ZEV credits. If not, they will either have to pay a massive penalty fine, or buy ZEV credits from vehicle manufacturers who have plenty to spare. And Tesla has an overflow of ZEV credits laying around. So Tesla is literally getting paid by other vehicle manufacturers to build their vehicles. TSLAQs (incorrectly) state that the only reason Tesla makes a profit is because of regulatory credits. However, Tesla's ZEV credits only make up around 5% of their revenue (page 4, row 3) and it is slowly falling. No serious vehicle manufacturer will likely produce ICE vehicles in the year 2030 so ZEV credits fazing out is to be expected. Tesla vehicles are massively profitable as mentioned in bullet #2 even without the ZEV credits.
So we went over the main revenue streams of Tesla. And if all works out well, it seems likely that Tesla has a good chance of 'winning' if they maintain their market leadership. However, the competition is coming, right? We have our favorite EV players such as Nio, XPeng, Li, Rivian, BYD etc. Also the traditional ICE manufacturers VolksWagen has their ID.4, Ford has thier Mustang Mach-E, Audi has thier etron, Porche has their Tycan, and GM has the Chevy Bolt and 30 EVs planned for the future. It seems inevitable that these industry giants with their massive resources will overtake Tesla. Or will they?
Why the Competition is NOT Coming (Tesla's Moats):
Difficulties of creating an EV vs. Mass Production: Creating a shell of an EV or a prototype is extremely easy. If anything, Nikola has showed this to be true. Rivian seems to be having the same issue Tesla had when starting up where they had to constantly push back release dates due to how difficult it is to engineer and manufacture an EV. So designing a prototype is easy. Manufacturing an EV is another thing. But mass production is a whole different beast. It took Tesla well over 16 years to perfect their technology and mass produce their model 3 despite having the best engineers in the world working for them. Ever wonder why every single vehicle manufacturer has constantly been pushing back their EV production timelines? It's because EVs are difficult. Also to note is that no vehicle manufacturer other than Tesla has been able to achieve mass production in EVs. And until then, Tesla has no competition in the near horizon.
Supercharger network: Tesla has the largest charging network in the world by orders of magnitude and they will continue to grow. VW is a low trailing second in the market due to penalties in their dieselgate scandel and as a lucky maneuver, decided to build their electrify-america charging network. BTW, due to sunk costs, VW will likely be the only traditional ICE manufacturer that stands a chance of survival in the long run. Tesla owners barely get range anxiety like they used to back in the day. This is because it is easy to find a charging station even if they are going on a long trip with their map integration. However, you cannot say the same for the other EVs.
Lidar vs. Camera: Tesla's vehicles notoriously does not use lidar technology. Instead, they almost only rely on vision (cameras). There are three main reasons for this. (I.) Cameras are extremely cheap. Lidar is not. One of Waymo's vehicles are estimated to have cost over $250k back in a 2017 estimate. Although in recent years Waymo seems to have developed lidar hardware that costs 90% less at $7.5k, it is still ridiculously expensive compared to cameras without adding much value. Here is Elon Musk's explanation, massively paraphrased: "Cameras augmented with AI can do almost all the things that lidar does chiefly depth sensing. Human vision does not require a separate depth sensor, and the entire driving infrastructure is built with human vision in mind. Lidar is a fools errand." Instead, Tesla augments its self driving technology with radar and maps. (II.) Lidar technology is usually augmented with something called HD maps. This is extreme detailed mapping (to the centimeter level) that helps lidar depth sensors with navigation. However, the issue with HD maps is that the file sizes are obviously large. And when detailed maps need to be updated due to construction or whatever which happens everywhere, every day, an OTA update needs to be sent out. And how do you update a fleet of all your vehicles when nationwide full coverage of 5G isn't a thing? So vehicles like Waymos are extremely good at driving within their geo-fenced locations, until they leave the area. And then they are absolute crap at it. OTOH, vision-based self driving vehicles are initially bad at the task until they have sufficient data and then they can drive well in almost every situation even without it being connected to the network. (III.) Vision-focused self driving AI can be augmented with additional sensors such as radalidar afterwards, but the inverse does not work. To put it short, if your lidar sensors disagree on the information they see at the moment, its entire system cannot function.
Misdirected Competition: Remember how we talked about ZEV credits? Well most ICE vehicle manufacturers only sell their vehicles in ZEV mandated states and nowhere else. They literally lose money when they sell their vehicles, or have to massively hike up their prices to make a profit even with tax credits, unlike Teslas. For this reason, they only make enough vehicles to make up for their ZEV credits. Naturally, one can assume the limits of effort gone into such vehicles. Now, let's talk about the EV start ups. I've already mentioned the massive growing pains they will have to reach mass production. However, the Chinese EV startups have one thing to their advantage - massive 5G infrastructure within China which will undoubtedly benefit automation, especially in the case of HD maps. However, this doesn't apply outside of China. To add to this, they do not produce in-house custom AI chipsets which is a massive hinderance in processing data. Tesla did this with Nvidia for a while and ultimately decided that they had to design their own chips because of the lackluster performance.
OTA Software Updates - A minor point, but Tesla has been designing their own software for years now. Well known to the public, Teslas update very frequently and with each update gets slightly better UI and performance. Yes - a software update allows Teslas to get better efficiency out of their vehicles. One can argue that any auto manufacturer can implement OTA software updates, but Tesla is leagues ahead at the moment with top notch software developers.
Talent Pool: Guess what the #1 company engineers want to work for is? That's right. Tesla. #2 is SpaceX. Try all they want, but the best engineers aren't going to want to work with Ford or GM.
"The Competition": I already mentioned the half-assedness of traditional ICE vehicle manufacturers but I wanted to bring up another point. One thing that traditional ICE manufacturers have weighing them down are their employees. Their ICE engineers don't translate well into a totally different EV drivetrain. There are sunk costs (equipment etc) that deal with ICE manufacturing processes. Also, Ford, GM, and VW all have unions, pension funds, and stockholders. What do you think their reaction will be when they decide to ditch the currently-profitable-but-soon-to-be-shrinking ICE vehicle component and transition into resource intensive EVs? That's right. They won't like it. The only solution is to half-ass it and slowly transition into EVs while trying to keep afloat their ICE vehicle component. With massive product line diversification and lack of focus, this is not going to be an easy transition. VW CEO Herbert Diess famously stated that "My goal for the future is clear: leading the Group into a sustainable and successful future. The global transformation in the industry will take roughly ten years, with or without Volkswagen." and tried to convince board members basically stating that VW will need to transition into EVs within 10 years or go bankrupt. Ultimately, Diess wasn't successful in achieving full cooperation of the board and had to compromise in his goals to a more gradual transition. The competition is NOT coming. Oh, and as for Waymo and Uber? Well Uber recently sold off their self-driving startup, and Waymo sunk a jaw dropping $3.5 billion for their operation. LOL. They are paying drivers to monitor their expensive "autonomous vehicles" while Tesla gets this done while making a profit. As of 2020, Waymo still only has 600 vehicles and has never left the bounds of Pheonix, AZ.
OK. So I'm sure I've missed some points but I think this paints a decent picture on why Tesla is considered the one and only market leader at the moment. Now let's go into...
Tesla's Disruptive Potentials:
The $25,000 EV: In Tesla's battery day announcement, Tesla projected that their battery technology will enable them to build a $25k vehicle in the future. According to projections using Wright's law, this seems to be plausible. Most think this will happen around 2023-4. Think of the disruption this will bring. EVs are well known for having lower maintenance cost vs. ICE vehicles due to not having as many moving parts. The true cost of ownership for a $25k vehicle will be vastly superior to a $20k ICE vehicle. Once this happens, ICE vehicle demand will fall through the roof. The only ICE vehicles being sold at high volume will be used vehicles. What happens to the traditional ICE manufacturers then? Tesla vehicles are already perceived to hold their value much better than other brands because of the overall feature it comes with.
Tesla Auto Insurance: Tesla collects massive amounts of data. They can easily profile their customers' driving patterns, check if they have self driving enabled, the route they drive etc. Currently Tesla vehicles are insured at a much higher premium vs. economic ICE vehicles. Once Tesla goes fully into the insurance business, traditional insurance companies will not be able to compete with them on price or margins. This is because the insurance business is based upon data on the customer and projections.
Solar City - Tesla's other business deals with solar panels, Tesla power walls, and their Autobidder software which sells the electricity that you generated back to the grid. Tesla currently offers the lowest solar panel price in the U.S. and moreover, takes 20% of the revenue generated from their autobidder software. Renewable energy is poised to grow. More than 50% annually is the current projection. And Tesla seems to be one of the industry leaders in this market as well.
Risks:
Failing autonomous driving: definitely a major risk as the current stock price is largely betting on this single technology to materialize. However, their current progress and the rate of improvement after rewriting their autopilot code seems promising.
Failing mass battery production (battery supply issues): Although Tesla is the largest producer of batteries in the world, they will need to produce more if they want to keep up with the current pace of expansion. This will be a major bottleneck for Tesla if they cannot solve this issue. As a solution, Tesla has reduced their reliance on copper and are said to be producing batteries with little to no copper. We shall see how this pans out.
Tesla is infamous for its poor Quality Control on their vehicles and slow/poor Customer Service. We shall see if time solves this issue.
Lack of Tax Incentives: Tesla's vehicles no longer provide Federal tax incentives to U.S. customers. However, they seem to be doing fine with over 80% EV marketshare in the U.S. alone. They're stealing market share from BMW, VW, Acura... you name it.
Elon Musk Death: Elon Musk has been able to achieve amazing engineering feats. If he dies, I'm sure a lot of the company's potential will go with it.
Alternative Battery Technology:
Solid State Battery - Quantumscape which is currently the leader in this sector has plans to enter mass production by 2024. We shall see if their battery technology turns out to be as efficient as Tesla's. If QS's SS batteries turn out to be superior to Tesla's, they might have to start purchasing from them.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) Battery - Likely not a good use for vehicles. Very low efficiency and wasteful vs lithium-ion batteries. Currently no infrastructure for HFC in place. Might be useful for freight shipping. Elon Musk famously stated that HFC's are "Fool Cells"
Tesla Future Products Lines:
Cybertruck: Insane profit margins, amazing performance. estimated production end of 2021 or 2022
Semi Truck: estimated production 2022 or later
Model S Refresh: Insane specs. Likely release is 2021
2020 Roadster: Insane specs but surprise! The "2020 Roadster" renewal never happened and most are projecting 2022 or later
$25k EV: 'nuff said
TSLA Analysis:
TSLA Institutional Ownership: 62.85% TSLA Insider Ownership: 5.21% TSLA Fanboy Ownership: estimated 5%+ So there is a stable 70%+ of ownership that will not/cannot sell this stock, unlike PLTR which has only 12% institutional ownership and 63% insider ownership. This is the reason why I think the stock won't drop tremendously even when it tanks. There are plenty of people who are willing to snatch up more shares at a discount.
Why did TSLA shoot up so quickly in 2020: This is my personal opinion, but TSLA fans are known for doing deep research into the company. In the early days this was in forums such as the Tesla Motors Club where they shared their own research on revenue, projections, and potentials. Now we have YouTube and information dissemination has gotten easier. Interest in investing has skyrocketed in 2020. Stock market trading GLOBALLY has gotten easier via smartphone with apps such as Robinhood and the prosperity of the American stock market has no doubt attracted global retail investors. For years, Tesla's stock has been pushed down by FUD analysts. Paid by big oil and traditional ICE manufacturers? Or really that dumb not to do any DD and spread completely false information on a company that you are massively shorting. We might never find out. Retailers have caught onto Tesla's potential ahead of analysts this time. And as in Morgan Stanley and RBC's case, analysts have just been catching up on the future potential of Tesla to not make a further fool of themselves.
Future scenarios and Personal Opinion: Currently, Tesla holds over 18% of the global EV marketshare. As more EV players come into space, it might seem like Tesla is in danger of losing marketshare. Not everyone wants a Tesla and that is understandable. But as the overall pie is growing, Tesla, with their 50% YoY production increase plans (which is exponential growth), will likely remain a market leader sustaining their current 18% market share even in 2030 just like how the iPhone did. This is, of course, if they can keep up their growth.
Even if TSLA fails to develop their robo-taxi network technology, their full self driving subscription seems highly likely to materialize at the current pace albeit a lower revenue model.
Ultimately, do I think the current stock price is a bubble? Fuck yes I do, maybe by up to 20%. I'm not buying any more TSLA shares anywhere near this price. My FOMO was back when the stock price was $415 after doing my DD and this was with the intention to buy more shares even if the stock bottomed out. Well, it never bottomed because the S&P inclusion was announced shortly after I purchased it.
But if you ask my personal opinion, you gotta be a "buy high sell low" type top level autist if you're looking for short term gains and purchasing at this level. I'm looking at long term, slow moving, dead ass boring, Bitcoin HODLing, Warren Buffet style "time in market beats timing the market" boomer gains here. My next purchase will be whenever the stock price, if ever, bottoms out. However, just because I think TSLA is overpriced doesn't mean that I'm shorting this stock either.
Amazon was notoriously non-profitable or barely profitable until 2015 because they were reinvesting their profits into expansion. That is what Tesla is doing right now. Remember all the analysts who continuously warned investors for over a decade to stay away from AMZN because they are unprofitable? Well, I don't see any sane analysts parroting that narrative anymore. And then its stock price shot to the moon after they enabled profit mode. It's stock price nearly doubled due to the pandemic and I'm still not planning on shorting this stock even though the pandemic will likely go away in less than a year.
I don't know how TSLA will do in the short term. Nonetheless, I do believe that Tesla has the best chance among any auto maker out there to reach a $2-10+ trillion valuation within 10 years. So I'm just going to lean back and enjoy the show.
TL;DR: Tesla HAS NO COMPETITION. This is as if android wasn't developed until 4 years after the iPhone was released. Do NOT short or buy puts on TSLA. Although the current run seems absolutely insane, there is some substance to hold it up and possibly keep shooting up higher
Positions: TSLA shares @ $415 and a bunch more with an average price of $518. No calls because my wife's boyfriend did not permit.
Back of the Napkin Calculations
Warning: These are literally back of the napkin, pure crack fantasy calculations based on four factors:
Tesla will be able to increase production by 50% YoY until 2030 without fall in demand or issues scaling. As a side note, Toyota sells 10.5 million vehicles in a year so only time will tell if Tesla is able to sell 20 million vehicles a year.
ZEV credits will gradually diminish due to manufacturers switching to EVs.
Tesla will solve level 3 autonomy by 2022 and will charge customers $1k/yr. Tesla will have level 5 autonomy by 2026 and launch its robotaxi network by 2027 which it will then charge customers $2k/yr.
The robotaxi revenue is from the 20% profit sharing Tesla plans to do, but as far as the numbers go, I straight up pulled it out of my ass while referencing Uber's revenue and fudging numbers.
Year
Vehicles Produced
Vehicle Sales Revenue
ZEV Credits
Full Self Driving Revenue
Robotaxi Revenue
Total Revenue (Vehicle Related)
Notes
2019
367k
20.2 B
0.6 B
0.36 B (est)
21.6 B (est)
FSD early access (cost $8k, 1 time fee)
2020
500k
23.9 B (est)
1.5 B (est)
0.6 B (est)
26 B (est)
FSD early access (cost $10k, 1 time fee)
2021
750k
35.8 B
1.3 B
0.9 B (est)
38 B (est)
FSD at Level 2.5
2022
1.1 mil
53.7 B
1 B
1 B+
55.7 B
FSD at Level 3 (FSD subscription service - lower pricing model @ $1k/y)
2023
1.7 mil
80.6 B
0.7 B
2.7 B+
84 B
2024
2.5 mil
120 B
0.4 B
5.2 B+
125.6 B
FSD at Level 4
2025
3.8 mil
181 B
0.1 B
9 B+
190.1 B
2026
5.7 mil
272 B
-
13.7 B+
285.7 B
FSD at Level 5
2027
8.5 mil
408 B
-
30 B+
1 B
439 B
Robotaxi Launch (FSD subscription service @ 2k/y)
2028
12.8 mil
612 B
-
55 B+
5 B
672 B
2029
19 mil
918 B
-
93 B+
13 B
1 T
2030
20 mil
1 T
-
130 B+
20 B+
1.1 T
As you can see, I omitted R&D expenses, operating expenses etc., and haven't even attempted to calculate their net profit or factor in that Tesla's revenue might drop due to introducing cheaper variants. But this back of the napkin, crack infused revenue model shows that Tesla's potential can be gigantic. This is even without its other businesses like Solar City or Tesla insurance etc. Please... don't reference this anywhere because it is dumb math and I likely made some huge errors lol.
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