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I want you to understand this. Truly. I like GameStop. I like $GME. I believe in the long term plan (or what I/we think is the plan, anyway). I bought a Pro Membership and have put in orders through the app I downloaded. I think they'll kill 4Q earnings in March. I THINK GAMESTOP IS A GOOD COMPANY. I think Cohen and his team bring something to the table that will truly turn around the company. I think CNBC and particularly Melissa Lee can go suck an egg with their dismissiveness of the bull case, which they barely even pretend to have considered. I think the stock was and has been manipulated as fuck. My personal belief, which I require nobody else to share, is that Ryan Cohen and gang also still have more buying to do, and their buying alone will drive the price up. But my belief is that they have no interest in buying at this price, or they'd have done so. I believe they're waiting for the price to fall back toward the fair market value. And I believe they may force the issue by issuing more shares. That's what I believe, and why I'm not holding positions right now. I probably will in the future, but my personal opinion is the time is not right. I wrote these posts: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6n4lj/on_leverage_supply_demand_how_we_got_here_gme/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6rsol/heres_the_letter_i_wrote_to_my_congressman/ (EDIT: lol I just realized both of those posts aren't visible since they were removed by the mods. They were pro-retail and pro-GME) I want to see people make money on this. Better yet, I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE MONEY ON THIS. Further, what Robinhood did, as well as Webull, Interactive Brokers, E*Trade, EToro, and tons of other brokerages did, was fucked up. Everybody here agrees. But you guys are actually fucking insane. We dont have a problem with the stock. We have a problem with YOU. Many of the people who have joined WSB in the past two weeks are brand new to investing. And that's okay! But the new people (7 million new versus 1.5 million old) have done the following:
Spent weeks downvoting every single ticker besides GME, AMC, BB, and NOK
Failed to realize there is no short squeeze on BB or NOK
Failed to realize the NOK spam was purely from bots
While you've realized there were bots that were bought, you missed (probably because you were spamming rocket emojis and gorillas) that the bots were spamming NOK.
Continually asked what stock WE are going to MANIPULATE next
Tried to educate the crowd on terminology you just googled ten minutes earlier.
I saw one person disagreeing with a long-time and well-respected poster here by telling other Apes to ignore that post, and to instead read a copied and pasted two paragraph blurb from investopedia that explained the effect of a stock split on a short position.
Made up securities laws and terminology that doesn't actually exist
Short ladders? Every time a price falls from a peak it's a short ladder? EVERY TIME?
You don't think that there's a natural reversion in the balance of supply & demand after a stock runs up thousands of percent in a matter of days?
With zero understanding of market mechanics, explaining to others why price action is fake
"Look how low volume is on this candle! It's not a real drop!"
Called people who have been involved in this play since Summer 2020 "paperhand pussies" for taking profits when the price of the stock went up 1,500%
Turned WallStreetBets into a political activism forum
Denying Reality
S3 partners is not lying to you. They and Ortex are consistently the best sources of difficult-to-obtain information on short interest. Just because they're reporting that short % of float is reduced FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL THAT ANY STOCK HAS EVER HAD does not mean that they're lying to you.
Spammed low-effort memes and easily-Googleable questions on the new submissions
When your posts were taken down, you posted AGAIN
Accused anybody with an opposing opinion of being a hedge fund shill/bot
AGGRESSIVELY spamming to find buyers to help you get out of your huge negative position
I want to gag every time I see somebody write "I'm not a financial advisor" following a post that makes that very clear
Moving the goalposts
"YOU ARE HERE on the VW short squeeze graph!"
"We finished above $325! Gamma squeeze!" (Personal confession, I almost fell for this one and I'm glad I sold before the plummet).
"Ok so there was no gamma squeeze Monday but Tuesday is the day!"
"Ok we fell another 50% Tuesday but definitely Wednesday!"
"Fuck it let's just harrass investor relations to help us!"
Accused the mods of being paid off by hedge funds for doing what they've always done, which is remove shit-tier posts from the front page
which you then posted again
and again
Completely ignored the rules of our subreddit
Market Manipulation --
No Pump & Dumps -- pressuring other people to buy low float stocks (such as GME) so that you can drive up buying demand and sell when you've decreased your losses is a scam.
Political Bullshit -- If you think "it's not about the money" then get the fuck out because it is absolutely about the money.
No Bullshitting -- There are so many of you advising others on their trades (followed by "This is not financial advice, am ape") while you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about aside from something you just read on Reddit 5 minutes ago, which was posted by somebody else who had no idea what the fuck they were talking about, which was based on a tweet they read 10 minutes before that from someone who DID know what they were talking about, but OP misinterpreted the meaning.
Believe it or not, that's against the rules. Just say you dont know. Or say nothing. There's actually no need to spam.
Gain & Loss Posts - nobody wants to see your Loss on one-third of a share of AMC. Come on.
YOLO - Your investment in one-third of a share of AMC is not a YOLO. A YOLO is DFV leveraging up his entire $55,000 account with positions in a single ticker and letting it ride or die.
I can't even find the others that I had in mind using the search tool because the entire list of YOLO's and DD's is filled with GME and AMC karma farming.
You have formed a cult. You've now decided, amongst yourselves, that anybody who is not in on your play and wants to discuss other things is just a paid hedge fund shill. Do you think that's a healthy mindset? If this is the investment that you truly want to make, and you feel you have an understanding of the risks, then fucking let it rip. I hope it works out. Seriously, I want you to make money. I like Gain porn a lot more than Loss porn. But stop bullshitting. Stop brigading. Stop spamming. You're driving us nuts. https://preview.redd.it/h7xqt1iw97g61.jpg?width=466&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc87b50bb806d2bedbb5aa0c3fa1ff56d19660b2
Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense. I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days. And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind. I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change. One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone! Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend. What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't. NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price. Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk. Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em! Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01 Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors. BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger? Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A. FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me. I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do. NOK PLAY: Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part. 1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head. 2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends. 3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS Value Part (crazy part in Q&A): The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble. Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/ Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27 They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers? Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too. So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back. Q&A Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to? Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company. Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER. https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5 That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price. Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially". But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up. So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands. Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it. They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen? Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself. Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps. Q: Why is NOK not rocketing? A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady. The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April. SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible. Q: How do we know it’s working? A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how. This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up? What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor. Q: Where will this max out and when? A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it. Set your targets to $3310, that should do it. Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy? A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it. Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK. A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money. Part 2: (29 Jan) First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it. Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK. NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us. OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this. What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with. But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN. UNBREAKABLE 3310! ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan): I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so. I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks. But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late. Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world. 3516.16% of average trading volume. Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze. But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them. Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us. What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct). But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work? Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares. Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets. And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them. So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME). Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit. Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph. You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why? What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year? Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that? But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China? US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world. Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great? Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now. Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered. The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up. So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works. But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change? So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS. TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🚨🚨NOK vent thread. NOKle HEADS GET THE HELL IN HERE. WE NEED TO TALK. 🚨🚨
Ok so, first things first you assholes, I am not a bot. I have been in the fucking game for about seven years now. I don’t typically do posts like this and so this is fucking new to me. Anyways, it seems like a shit ton of you are falling out of favor with NOK. I don’t know what the fuck is wrong with you if you expected to gain a shit ton of money in a day, but what the fuck I have never seen such 🧻🤲🏻 in my fucking life for the past two days. Are you guys really just going to stand there and let the enemy beat the fuck out of us. And of course some of you are going to mention the total float as if that fucking matters because the stock is still cheap as fuck (for now lol 🚀) and because we managed to trade one fucking fifth of all the NOK stocks in circulation. They literally had to stop our asses from buying a couple of times. Just like you autistic retards I have lost thousands of dollars in this shit. My paychecks, birthday money, dividends, money from the sale of blue chips and Ark ETFs, etc. So where’s the upside? Well let me fucking tell you where the upside is and when you can expect to pull off the biggest fucking heist alongside GME and AMC Wall Street will have ever seen. 🔥🚀💸 NOK is well known to be the bigger beast when it comes to the BANG stocks (BB, AMC, NOK, GME). It has a fuck load of shares to go around and there’s a lot of paperhanded pussies out there, so I understand why it may be daunting to expect a Juggernaut like NOK to moon anytime soon. But it doesn’t have to be. NOK releases its earnings on Thursday and its expected to blow the competition out of the fucking water. I wouldn’t even be surprised at all if it were to get a higher price than ERIC in two weeks (hell, possibly by EOW). NOK even plans to merge with top tier companies in the near future due to their prowess in the 5G tech that they’re developing. The 🏳️🌈🐻 have had their big meaty claws ever since its ATH of $62 all those years ago. Do you really expect a change if you don’t fucking BUY and fucking HOLD. No, with a team of fucking retarded superstars in this sub, NOK is prepping for a fierce comeback in the upcoming weeks. GME is top dog right now, but let’s be honest. GME hype can’t last forever (even tho it can for a long time as long as we remain retarded). However being on team NOK makes me feel like I’m on a loosing, shitty ass baseball team and no one is hitting over .100 What’s the plan, Stan? The fucking plan is that you don’t buy market price. You look at the ask price and you fucking buy it. This is how we destroy walls. The $5 barrier battle today was hard fought and we fucking lost to the hedge funds. This next week is going to be fucking spectacular 🪄🚀🤲🏻💎 and I need to know if my fucking NOKle heads are even in it to win it or just downright frauds. You say NOK was a plan by the bots? Take a look at fucking BlackBerry. That shit took the same swerves NOK did that it’s pretty much identical. If NOK is a sham, then the idea of the BANG stocks is a sham. I know for a fucking fact you don’t believe that. I know that there’s dreamers in this sub. I dream just like you. I am trying to build a life just like you guys are. We are in something way bigger than ourselves so if you can for ONCE IN YOUR LIFE consider that maybe that the process is a trustable process then maybe we can win this shit. If NOK hits $50, I will literally buy new fucking silverware (like expensive handmade shit with sterling silver cutlery) and eat my own shit. I don’t give a fuck whether you’d want to see it or not, because honestly boys I’d eat my shit to go to the moon and I am 200% willing to take one for the team. This year, BANG is for real. So hedgefunds, keep your ears out for the NOK NOK sounds on the door. We’re pissed and we’re armed to the teeth. EDIT: General cheese reporting. Post this shit everywhere. I dont give a fuck. I WILL be producing a flank strategy tomorrow. People have to know goddamn it. Monday/Tuesday will close at $7 just give it time The bell doesn’t fucking ring until WSB says it fucking rings. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🥵🥵 EDIT 2: some of you pussies are asking where you can buy NOK. The easiest way to buy it is with that fucking app all the whores on Tinder beg for food money on: Cashapp. There are literally no fucking limits and if you want an extra 2 fucking shares then use this shit when you sign the fuck up and get $10 extra buckaroos: BKXDNGQ. I also want to make it clear that everyone should share their cash apps so that we can get that $10 extra to put into NOK. I’m only doing this for the small wagecucks so if you have the money to do so, then don’t bother. This is just the only thing on the top of my head that would help out in any way List of reasons to buy:
Most essential 5G patents in the world
Fastest 5G speeds recorded
Controls over 27% of the 4/5G market
First company contracted to set up internet on the moon (NASA)
Will receive MULTI-BILLION dollar settlements from ongoing litigations with Mercedes Benz and Lenovo
Technology provider and main collaborator of the National Security Center of Excellence 5G Cybersecurity Project (Federal 5G project)
Selected to be the main collaborator of the Hexa 6G European Union Project
Has pending Department of Defense contracts yet to awarded
Just sealed a contract with TMOBILE for US 5G roll out.
Has and will take market share from Huawei, already has secured multi-year deals with important Chinese companies
Blackrock increased their position to 333,000,000 shares during 2020, an increase of 21 million shares held from the year before (7% increase)
May also be getting back into the phone business as they are manufacturing phones in India
Vanguard Capital owns 160,000,000 shares and is continuously buying
Google Cloud announced a partnership with $NOK to Accelerate Cloud-Native 5G Readiness for Communications Providers
BB -- Blackberry AWS -- Amazon Web Services IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system) EOY -- end of year PT -- price target SP -- stock price EV -- electric vehicle SoC -- System on a Chip IoT -- Internet of Things TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market
FAQs:
1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down? A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year. 2) Should I invest now or later? A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP 3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business? A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV. 4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners? A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.
Blackberry Clients and Partners Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Blackberry Current Revenues:
BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth
Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:
see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal
Image This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20 Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.
Blackberry New Partnerships
Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX. A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB
Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:
Just read this post. It's quite revealing: Great Day for BB despite stick dipping. TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.
Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:
Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture: Image For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible. As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure) see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
Revenue, revenue, revenue...
Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share
Really, no competitors?
Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.
Conclusion:
All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly. Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice... This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well
Did you finally beat Cynthia and her Garchomp from hell? Here's a list of things for you to do!
Complete Your Sinnoh Dex
Assuming that you haven't skipped any trainers, the only Pokemon that you'll need to complete your dex are Manaphy if you haven't gone to the Pokemon Mansion and Rotom if you haven't gone to the Old Chateau. They're both easy to get. You can get Manaphy registered in your dex by reading a book located in the office of Mr. Backlot and Rotom can be found in the Old Chateau in the room with the TV in the evening, remember to interact with the TV - Rotom isn't in the Overworld.
A Whole New Island
After you complete your Sinnoh Dex and get the National Dex from Rowan, fly to Snowpoint and talk to the sailor outside the city. He will take you to the Battle Area. After you battle Volkner and Flint with Barry, the Frontier will be unlocked and you can enter. The Survival Area and the Resort Area will be unlocked, but ignore them for now and head straight to Stark Mountain. Complete the story there and go back to the Survival Area. You will see Buck in front of the Battleground, which is now accessible. There, you can fight Barry and the Gym Leaders. Here are some things to do in the Battle Tower: Defeat Tower Tycoon Palmer once to earn a Silver Print Defeat Factory Head Thorton once to earn a Silver Print Defeat Arcade Star Dahlia once to earn a Silver Print Defeat Castle Valet Darach once to earn a Silver Print Defeat Hall Matron Argenta once to earn a Silver Print Defeat everyone above a second time to earn 5 Gold Prints
Hunt The Legendaries Down
After you've done all that stuff, it's time to return to the main island. Here are the locations of all accessible legendary Pokemon in the game: Uxie and Azelf: Lake Acuity & Valor Cavern Uxie is overworld spawn in the middle of Lake Acuity. Interact with it to battle it. Azelf is also a overworld spawn, but in the middle of Lake Valor. Interact with it to battle it. Mesprit: Lake Verity Cavern Mesprit is a overworld spawn in the middle of Lake Verity, interacting with it causes it to flee. You can now hunt it down with the Marking Map app. Heatran: Stark Mountain Heatran is a overworld spawn in the cave where Charon was arrested. Interact with it to battle it. Shaymin: Flower Paradise Shaymin is a event overworld spawn in the Flower Paradise. To get it, you'll need Oak's Letter, an event item. Travel back into the Victory Road and go find the cave entrance that was previously blocked by a fat man. You will find Marley there. Travel through the cave and the routes until you see Oak next to a stone tablet. Complete the story events and eventually you'll find Shaymin. Interact with it to battle it. Cresselia: Fullmoon Island Cresselia is a overworld spawn in Fullmoon Island, to get there, head to Canalave City and talk to the Sailor who took you to Iron Island earlier. He will now take you to Fullmoon Island where you can interact with Cresselia. It will flee and you can now hunt it down with the Marking Map app. Darkrai: Newmoon Island Darkrai is a event overworld spawn in Newmoon Island. To get it, you'll need the Member's Card, an event item. Head to the building above the Canalave Pokemon Center and go inside it. Sleep in the bed and you'll be teleported to Newmoon Island. Find Darkrai and interact with it to battle it. Dialga & Palkia: Spear Pillar Both are overworld spawns. First, talk to Cynthia's Grandmother in Celestic Town, go grab the Adamant and Lustrous Orbs inside Mt. Coronet and head to the Spear Pillar. Dialga's portal will appear and you can interact with the rift to battle Dialga. After Dialga is captured or defeated, leave Spear Pillar and reenter it. Palkia's portal will appear and you can interact with the rift to battle it. Legendary Birds: Roaming After the National Dex is completed, go talk to Professor Oak, who lives in Eterna City. He will give you a Up-Grade and tell you about the legendary birds. Afterwards, the birds will now be roaming and you can now hunt them down with the Marking Map app. The Regis: Multiple Locations First, collect the event Regigigas from the PokeMart mailman. The regis will now be obtainable in the following locations: Regice: Mt. Coronet (East of Rt. 216) Regirock: Rt. 226 Registeel: Iron Island After all three are captured, head to Snowpoint Temple, which is now accessible. Complete the puzzles inside and capture Regigigas. Arceus: Spear Pillar Arceus is a event overworld spawn on Spear Pillar. It is unobtainable in legitimate games. If a Azure Flute is hacked into the games with a AR code, head to Spear Pillar and you will be asked to blow the flute, blow it and a staircase will appear. You can catch Arceus on top of it. Giratina: Turnback Cave If you didn’t catch Giratina in the Distortion World, you can find Giratina in Turnback Cave. It is located in the Sendoff Springs, where Cynthia was standing after you completed the Distortion World. Once you enter the cave, complete the puzzles and you will find Giratina’s over world sprite, interact with it to battle it. Once Giratina is caught or defeated again, you will be able to return to the distortion world to get the Griseous Orb.
Beat the League Rematches
The rematches are unlocked after you get the National Dex. By this time, they have Pokemon in the level 70s, so make sure to grind up. The teams remain unchanged. Cynthia's Garchomp is level 78, so make sure you're prepared!
Get the Ultimate Black Trainer Card
This is your final quest on your great journey. To get this special trainer card, you need to: Defeat the League Rematches Win At Least 1 Master Rank Super Contest Play At Least 1 Online Underground Capture the Flag Match Complete the National Dex Earn 100 Wins in the Battle Tower
For the Completionists
This is super-postgame. You can take the time to grind money to buy all villa furnitures or get access to the Ribbon Syndicate. Both of these require heaps and heaps of money grinding. If you don’t have the time to do these, don’t. If you've completed all of these quests, then congratulations! You have now completely completed Pokemon Platinum. I hope you had fun! It's time for some shiny hunting. Note: The quests above don't have to be completed in numerical order, but I recommend you do it in that order. This took pretty long to make, I hope you liked it. Edit: Through popular demand, the next post will be on HG/SS. Stay tuned!
Note: BlackBerry is NOT a cyber security company. They are a security company. Revenue does not care about your AI driven autonomous machine learning EV car with DDs. People are using these terms loosely. A quick lookup for interviews with John Chen would prove that he explicitly avoids these terms as they do not define nor matter to the products/revenue of BlackBerry. QNX revenue does not depend on any of these terms, it's on installation on any device. This includes the space station, of which there is 1 of with obviously non-recurring revenue. Buying based on these basis would be gambling. Bull:
Business transformation: BlackBerry is now a software company, starting the transformation in 2015. The focus is security, the general term.
5 Products:
QNX: Embedded system OS.
Multi-OS housing: It has the capability to allow for multiple OSs on a single chip.
Real-time availability/software prioritization: Not all pieces of software operate on the same priority. Steering/braking would be higher priority than media, and QNX allows for that. Even if the thread/core is shared with other applications, when high priority software is requesting a resource it will be prioritized to ensure reliability.
Resource sharing: CPU, RAM, and GPU resource sharing between different applications capability. Two applications can share the same CPU core and bump each other based on prioritization.
Why not Linux? QNX has the highest certification for security available. Linux does not. CEOs would want to avoid liability and this certification allows for that.
Device agnostic: It can be installed on any device, not just cars. Any IoT and offline device can use QNX.
QNX Hypervisor: Consolidate multiple OSs on a single SoC using virtualization
SoC: System on a chip. Instead of using multiple ECUs, which is what car manufacturers currently do, they can use one single chip to run multiple high priority applications and multiple OSs. This is what Tesla does now.
Virtualization: Running an OS in a virtual environment. Think Linux environment inside of Windows. This helps with debugging for developers without having to have the actual hardware.
IVY: Scalable cloud-connected software platform for vehicles.
What is it a solution for? When a vehicle manufacturer wants a way to transmit the QNX/OS data safely, normalize it, and visualize it/interact with it. It also allows car manufacturers to own the data, unlike other OSs.
Scalable: AWS servers are capable of handling the load from many endpoints.
Software platform: There is currently no centralized software ecosystem for vehicles. IVY is providing that.
Non-BB developers would be able to use an SDK to develop applications on IVY for infotainment/general apps/others. IVY will also use ML to gain insight on unrecognized patterns by developers. An example of this is detecting if a car slipped, without having the developer connect multiple sensors to figure out if that event happened.
50/50 joint effort on revenue and effort to develop the ecosystem. Using AWS's knowledge in AI/ML for calculated sensors (slip, driver on seat, etc)
Usage by other vendors: A city can connect to the data from vehicles and detect when ice/slipping is happening. If brakes are getting overheated coming from a high elevation area. If a car had an accident, etc. An insurance company can provide an app to give discounts similar to the currently implemented OBD-2 readers. A maintenance provider can also connect to this data and check if an error is specific to maintenance, malpractice, or general misuse.
Spark: Endpoint management. Basically API security. Did not delve far into this, basic info.
Unified Endpoint Security: This is the endpoint where a laptop/phone/IoT device hits. It provides encryption and security around that. Continuous authentication is a part of it, where a device is learning the user behavior using ML and continuously checking if the behavior matches the original owner; if not, lock the device.
Unified Endpoint Management: Basically managing your API for devices.
Zero trust: I think this is specifically talking about continuous authentication. Basically, it's not an authenticate once and forget it. It's constantly tracking behavior to verify the user is the authenticated user.
AtHoc: Non-enterprise communication system.
Target customers: Government, healthcare, education, etc.
Solution: A communication system targeting non-enterprise businesses; specifically for Event management, cross organizational communication/collaboration, mass notifications.
Who does this benefit? You've seen the hacks in healthcare/educational/governmental sector. This is specifically for them.
SecuSUITE: Phone application to allow employees to use work related data in personal devices without cross communication (between personal and work data).
End to end encryption.
Separation of concerns between personal and work data. Employers CANNOT access your personal data.
Used by NATO; doesn't carry much value in my book but maybe in yours.
Customer oriented solutions: As you've seen in the products above, some products overlap and are just names to target specific customers. It allows customers to easily understand what product could solve their issue. Continuous authentication is a great example of this: Their customer complained that they kept re-authenticating, so they designed a solution allowing them to authenticate once and using ML they learned their behavior and can continuously check if the user is the owneauthenticated user. This kind of passion in leadership is good for business.
Liability: QNX has the highest security rating available. Most CEOs want to avoid liability when it comes to security, using QNX would help them avoid that in a similar way cloud services help them avoid being blamed for hacking.
Leadership: BBs leadership isn't one to play on famous words to drive the stock up. John Chen explicitly states this in his interviews and says they are a security company. Not cyber, doesn't mention AI or whatever. He explicitly avoids meme words and understands what the point of BBs business is.
Where I think growth can be made:
QNX in more cars. They can capitalize on the idea of less ECUs = less cost for OEMs + security.
IVY usage by OEMs along with QNX.
IVY ecosystem. Maybe application billing?
Professional services (support) for the products listed.
AtHoc increased market share in more governmental/healthcare/educational entities.
SecuSUITE for more enterprise customers with the idea being saving employers money from purchasing work phones for employees, and worrying about securing them.
Bear:
Revenue: It is not yet based on a subscription/usage basis. You can only produce so many cars, and they don't give an insight on how much do they charge per car for QNX. Anywhere from $2 - $20 is what was mentioned in transcripts. This is a growth area, but not at a trajectory that's excellent. IVY does work on a subscription/usage basis, but IVY can be used WITHOUT QNX. I'm worried about this, but still see it as an area that will generate revenue in the range of $400 MM - $600 MM at the price of $20 per 30M cars. The 30M per year is based on the listing of their customers and their yearly production rates. Keep in mind I stated any device, this does not include trucks or other IoT devices.
Market share: These are relatively new products. J.P. Morgan pointed this out as a priority for growth. This could end up not working out and growth never happens. This is a relatively low risk due to QNX and IVY providing SO MUCH value for car manufacturers Vs. other products in the market.
Patent revenue: They sold a chunk of their no longer relevant patents to Huawei. This makes up a small (<= 32%) of their revenue and is a one time sale. The coming quarter could be equal or less to the last quarter revenue due to either other sales making up the lost revenue from patents, or coming up short. It could come higher if they sold more services, but due to COVID and knowing that many car manufacturers have lowered their production due to chip shortage, the next quarter will most likely be lower.
VW.os: VW is making their own OS. VW.os is what they're calling it. They're currently using QNX, but that revenue could potentially stop. Personally I don't believe VW is capable of doing that. It's a marketing hype. Their companies are not capable of good collaboration or good implementation based on what I've read and researched (can't find article right now), but it's something to be concerned about.
QNX success: While IVY could be using QNX, it does NOT depend on it. There is potential for OEMs to use IVY without QNX. I think this is a low risk, but still risk. 19 OEMs are already using QNX.
Lack of Answers: I can't get much out of their earnings call. They don't delve into pricing for QNX, how they plan to grow it besides getting more car manufacturers and more cars post Corona. How they plan to do recurring revenue. A breakdown of each revenue segment would be helpful, but I don't see that either and there is hesitancy to delve into it.
Prediction: I think QNX can become a $1B revenue per year alone. $2B revenue per year as a company is not far fetched. Without a subscription/usage based model, it is difficult to see how growth can go beyond that. BB is good in 2-5 years, not this year. I can see their revenue growing to potentially $2B - $4B revenue per year. They did mention trying to figure out a subscription/usage based billing, if done then the revenue would be much higher. I think $18 is a fair price on the high end. It could grow further than that, but expectations would be HIGH. Resources:
Position: 1,500. Disclaimer: I don't know everything, I may be incorrect about some things. This is based on what I've researched and to the best of my ability. Do your own DD. Obligatory this is not an investment advice. Edit: This is the only sub with a lot of discussion. I appreciate y'all. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 Edit 2: One day later, marked closed $18.03. Crazy.
Bitcoin and speculative stock investing are dark mirrors of each other and the whole system is rotten.
Hey guys. Not entirely sure if this is the right place for this post, but here goes. Since the GameStop short squeeze and the Elon Musk Bitcoin pump happened, there's been a lot on my mind about both Bitcoin and regular stocks and I need to get this off my chest. One thing above all has really been bothering me and I couldn't put it into words until recently: how rotten the whole system is and how it allows a minority to earn enough money to never need to work again. Whether it's Bitcoin or speculative stocks, it works out very similarly. People throw money and hope they get lucky, no better than any gambling. When they win, it's not because they were smarter or did some great service to society. They only had to install an app on their phone, go through some KYC and throw money at their crypto or stock of choice. Money is a currency used to determine how much access to society's resources someone has. The more money you have, the more resources you can access. This can be better apartments, lambos, yachts, mansions, whatever. The winners of crypto or stocks are just gamblers, they get a disproportionately high share of society's resources without creating anything of value. And then there's people like me. I work a day job, working hard every day and trying to improve my skills, hoping to get recognized and achieve some measure of success in life, yet I get a pittance while all these gamblers win big. To be clear here, I'm not salty because I didn't invest money or lost it. I don't believe in either speculative stock investing or crypto "investing". I realize that speculative investments have a far higher chance to lose money, and losing money can really hurt you and your life prospects. With both Bitcoin and speculative stock investing, what happens in practice isn't very different. They're glorified casinos and the winners are set for life, and it really grinds my gears because they didn't do anything to earn it, while I'm sitting at a desk day in and day out, working hard yet barely getting anything out of it. But what's even worse is that the winners' wealth is created through exploitative means. For someone to win money in the casinos, someone else has to lose. Usually a lot of someones. And the losers? They can be drastically affected by their loss. It's even more sad when you realize that most of them were suckered into playing the game with false promises: "Bitcoin/Gamestop is guaranteed to moon! Invest now and you'll never need to work again!" and so on. Then when things fail and the hysteria ends, a lot of people are left holding the bag. Some turn to substance abuse, others commit suicie, yet others double down and throw more money at the casino in the vain hopes that they'll win the next time. And even if speculative investments had a 50% or higher chance of making you a winner, what would that mean for our society? I'm no economist, but I'm pretty sure that our society would start running low on resources as people buy more luxuries they couldn't afford before and this would result in price inflation. Which in the long-term, would nullify the winners' wealth and make everyone else worse off. It's all so upsetting, and very sad what our society really values. Sorry if this was too long or rambly, but I really needed to get this off my chest. Let me know what you think in the comments. Edit: This might not have been clear to some, but I'm not a Bitcoin supporter. I know how it works and why it's terrible. Edit 2: Well, my free day of shitposting is ending, so I'm wrapping up this thread. Thank you all so much for your responses! There were many interesting discussions, even with coiners. I might respond more tomorrow, but not as much as today.
I believe I have found lotto FDs (and other puts) that will actually print. DoorDash is about to collapse, and this is your opportunity to bank.
Disclaimer: It is moronic to buy FDs. That is not the way to consistently build wealth. The very reason FDs pay off such huge returns is because on average their probability of expiring worthless is 99%. If you’re moronic enough to buy FDs with me, only do it with money that you are willing to literally set on fire. Actual fire. There are plenty of safer puts on DASH that will pay obscene returns this year.. TLDR: I believe DoorDash (DASH) is the greatest short opportunity of the year, and what’s more, rather than just having a general feeling, there are specific timetables enabling us to profit bigly. The company even admits themselves that they have peaked as a company.
Analysis:
“Food delivery with third-party apps like Grubhub and Uber Eats is booming, but no one's making money.” – Business Insider.
DoorDash is wildly overvalued. This is true by any metric, were it in essentially any industry. Add to that its in food delivery, which is a horrific, no margin industry in what has become a commoditized business and offers essentially no differentiation with its competitors. There is near zero differentiation between Uber Eats, Postmates, Caviar, Grubhub, DASH, or any local provider. In Austin we have Favor, for example. And nobody cares which company delivers their food, they only care which one does it cheapest. If you view stock (as you should) as buying the entire business as an owner, how much would you be willing to pay for an undifferentiated company in a no margin commoditized business that has peaked (see below for more on that)? Because it’s currently selling for an insane $56 billion. Outrageous. So how can we get a banana for scale to understand what that $56 billion means in terms of valuation? Well, all of DoorDash’s competitors have either sold at or are trading at, or raised money at, a capitalization of 3x to 6x sales. DASH is trading at an absolutely insane 20+ x sales. Just six months ago Postmates was acquired for $2.65 billion which put it at 4x sales. At 4x sales, DASH would trade at $32. DASH used to be the business leader in this industry, but over the past 2-3 years Grubhub has exploded in size to take on nearly the same 33% of market share, and after Uber Eats bought Postmates, it too now has about a third of market share. So you now have three giants of roughly equal size battling it out in a business in which customers don’t give a motherloving frick about branding.
But don’t take my word for it on valuation, take smart money’s word
DoorDash raised money just a couple months ago at a $16 billion valuation. That is truly a stunning fact. In just a few months the WSB type day trading call buyers have bid this company all the way up to $56 billion from $16 billion without any material change to the business and completely ignoring the coming vaccine-induced reopening of restaurants. Again, the stock trades for a 300% markup to its recent smart money capital raise based on nothing but unfounded hopium. You don’t have to take my word for it, your beloved Jim Cramer has even said the same thing, in his own idiotic, covering my ass, round about say nothing way. “It’s true that people using market orders took DoorDash to levels that maybe ... were far higher than they thought they’d have paid.” - Jim Cramer I don’t care about his commentary, but you people seem to love him, so there you go. 😘
The Company, according to The Company, has peaked. It’s over.
There are two extremely interesting things buried in the S-1 we’re going to get into in a moment. One of them is that you don’t have to take my word for it that this company’s business has peaked. The company says so itself in its own S-1.
The circumstances that have accelerated the increase in Total Orders stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may not continue in the future, and we expect the growth rate in Total Orders to decline in future periods.
To put it simply, COVID numbers are falling, vaccines are rolling out at an impressive 1-2 million per day which puts our stated goal of 100 million vaccinated in 100 days within attainable reach. The economy will be opening up, people will want to be getting out of the house, restaurants will be reopening, and there will be huge pent up demand by people who have had extraordinarily high savings rates over the last year. Big chains will no longer have the need to get help from third party delivery apps at a 15% markup. We all know this is the case, and DoorDash even stated as much in its own filing. This stock is toast.
”Delivery via smartphone is one of those venture-funded sectors where business executives appear to have taken seriously the old joke about “losing money on every transaction but making it up on volume.” – New York Magazine
There are some wild share lockup expirations coming up. For those that don’t know, when you get these massive IPOs, insiders aren’t actually able to sell their shares on IPO day. They are locked up and the insiders just have to hope for the best that the stock will not lose value over the coming months. If the stock skyrockets in value, but the insiders know the business is trash or has peaked, you get the perfect recipe for a rush for the exits. I love playing share lockups. I make a lot of money on them by selling spreads. A common question I get when I post them here is “if you know a drop is coming, why doesn’t the market just price it in?” The answer is because it can’t. No matter what the share price does, the lockup expiration date is the lockup expiration date. Insiders have to wait until that date, and it doesn’t matter whether the stock falls 0%, 5%, or 50%, they will all have to wait until that day to sell. DoorDash has two share lockup expirations coming. The first lockup expiration is an early release (heh) and hits 90 days after the Dec. 9 IPO, or around March 9, as long as the stock trades 25% higher than the IPO price for five out of 10 consecutive days of trading. That is to say, so long as DASH trades above $127.50 right before March 9, the lockup is triggered. The good news for you with this insane run up in price is that if the lockup isn’t triggered, it means the stock has already fallen from $190 to $127. It’s important to know March 9 is not a hard date exactly...some insiders can be allowed to go a few days prior. Also if they release earnings early the lockup could potentially occur at the end of this month. I was talking to some folks on WSB about the lockup last week, and someone mentioned they thought only 20% of insider shares will be eligible. DoorDash's management and board members can sell up to 20% of their shares in that first wave, but other insiders can sell up to 40%. This means 113 million shares are eligible for sale in early lockup expiration. DoorDash’s daily volume is only 3-4 million shares. The current public float is roughly 123 million shares. This means you’re about to suddenly double the number of shares on the market. Door Dash’s second lock-up expiration hits either 180 days after its IPO, which means around June 9 (more or less), or after the release of its first-quarter earnings report (whichever is earlier), and will free up “all remaining shares” according to the S-1, which if my math is correct is roughly 50 million shares. These two expirations could spark violent sell-offs throughout the year.
Positions
FDs
I never buy FDs. I’ve never once bought them in my entire life. But I’m putting 1% of my portfolio into them on DASH because I’m confident big drops are coming. Unfortunately for you guys, the stock has already started falling this past month from its 🤡-level highs in the $200s, and worse yet the pricing/IV of all options has gotten more expensive. This means, I’m sorry to say, that you’re not going to find any options trading for pennies, or even anything less than $2. For your FDs, I recommend you buy puts at whatever the lowest strikes are that actually have any volume. The strikes go as low as $75, but most days show 0 volume and of course the bid/ask spread is enormous. There has been some volume at $95 recently, and you can get the $75s if you’re patient enough and willing to pay up for them. Expiration dates would be any time in mid to late March (again, looking for whatever has volume) so that it occurs after lockup 1, and the August 20s, which unfortunately are the closest expiration to the lockup occurring around June 9. I wish there was a closer expiration, but hey, more time for the stock to collapse. Plus you could always sell your puts after the June 9 drop with lots of theta meat still left on the bone.
Puts
I own March 12 $160 puts. I think the stock will drop healthily below this, but IV is high. I’m normally taking big swings with spreads, so when I buy puts outright, which is rare, I want to play it a little safer. I also own the August 20 $145 puts. And finally, I have six figure credit call spreads open at the $175 level. For newbies, this simply means I: Bought (yes bought) the March 12 $175 calls, and Sold the $172.50 calls. I went huge on these because all I need is for DoorDash to trade below $172.50 after the lockup expiration and I’ll be having a Merry Christmas. That’s as close to risk free gains as you’re ever going to see in your life.
Bull case
The only bull case is that we’re in a raging, record-setting bull market and all stonks go up. The economy is opening back up, vaccines are rolling out, and stonks go up. But I think if you look at the DASH chart you can see that that is already starting to not be the case.
What are the negatives?
I plagiarized liberally from an old Citron Research report, although it doesn’t even mention share lockups. Yes, that Citron. For those of you who are newer members, I will tell you this; the little smart money social circles in and around WSB do not hate CItron, Hindenburg, or any other short selling firms. We respect them and welcome bearish cases on high flying stocks. Any intelligent trader does. It’s only the pump and dumpers who have a hatred for short reports. You should welcome contrarian views.
Parting Words.
I would welcome anyone pointing out where they think I may be wrong. I don’t care about saving face, I care about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it. I welcome constructive criticism.
Give Me One More TLDR At The End
This stock is going to collapse because it’s wildly overvalued, employees got in super cheap with shares they are waiting to sell, know the business has peaked, and they want to cash the fahk out. So swallow the high IV and buy puts today as fast as you can. Love you guys.
Complete DD on HCMC Share Structure: Clarification on Share Dilution, Outstanding Shares, Float, Authorized Shares and the Meaning behind the letter from the CEO.
1. Introduction
This is a post aimed at clarifying some misconceptions that have been arising over the past day(s) throughout Reddit/StockTwits/Telegram/WhatsApp/Facebook. Everyone was concerned over the recent apparent "dilution", and many many sources were deemed as either false, or not cited and just taken as is. There are a few concepts worth going over, especially for the newer investors who have taken part of this community, and for the more experienced ones, you are welcome to amend my list by letting me know.
This has been written in an attempt to not let new investors panic when "new information" arises, and to raise awareness of what is going on with HCMC and the associated terminology. P.S. I have a TLDR in here for people who already know the definitions and want to skip P.P.S. the tables I have added might not be fully visible on a mobile device, so if you want to have an in depth view of the numbers it is strongly suggested view this post on a computer instead.
2. Different Type of Shares and Dilution
These are a series of terms that are needed in order to understand the content of many sources, they are mostly pertaining to different share types and the mechanics of dilution.
Authorized shares: are the maximum number of shares a company is allowed to issue to investors, as laid out in its articles of incorporation.
Outstanding Shares: Shares that are issued or sold to investors from the available number of authorized shares are known as outstanding shares.1 This is the total amount of shares available to the public including employees and insiders.
Restricted Shares: Stock owned by insiders, employees or major institutional investors, that is under some sort of sales restriction (such as a lock-up period - you cannot sell the shares until a certain date)
Float: The term float refers to the regular shares a company has issued to the public that are available for investors to trade. This figure is derived by taking a company'soutstanding sharesand subtracting any restricted stock.2
Unrestricted Shares: When a lock-up period expires or a certain condition is met, restricted shares turn into unrestricted shares which in turn increase the float.3N.B. Sometimes unrestricted shares are used as a term to indicated float + restricted shares that have been converted to unrestricted
Shares Held at DTC: are the shares we can buy on our brokerage platforms such as Trading 212, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Charles Schwab etc. and represent the real float as DTC stands for Depositary Trust Company and most of the biggest broker-dealers in each country are DTC-participants. DTC offers settlement services for trading securities in the markets.
Main Categories of Stock:
Common Stock: (Ordinary Stock) is a security that represents ownership in a company, i.e. shares of a stock that we buy on brokerage platforms such as Trading 212, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Charles Schwab etc.
Preferred Stock: are shares of a company’s stock with dividends that are paid out to shareholders before common stock dividends are issued. These are different from common stock as they are issued primarily by banks and other financial institutions, and were originally intended as a way to raise capital without diluting value for their ordinary shareholders. Not the shares we invest in.4Preferred Stock - Purpose:
Access to dividends before common shareholders
Seniority over common stock in the event of liquidation or bankruptcy (seniority in this case means that preferred stock holders get paid before common stock holders
Limited upside potential/capital appreciation meaning they don't get to participate in the profits as much as common stock holders if the share price increases.
Dilution: Common stock holders own the corporation, and dilution reduces that level of ownership. As owners, common stock holders benefit from corporate earnings through dividends and/or higher stock prices. Any security that reduces the ownership percentage of common stockholders is dilutive. 5Dilution can happen in the following ways:
Issuance of New Shares (Dilutive-Secondary Offering or Follow-On Offering): involves creating new shares and offering them for public sale. This type of secondary offering happens when a company's board of directors agrees to increase the share float for the purpose of selling more equity. 6
Through Convertible Securities: These are securities that have been already issued in accordance to previous filings that can be converted into common stock and have a dilutive effect even if no no new issuance of shares occurs.
Convertible Preferred Stock: Holders of convertible preferred stock can exchange their shares for a specified number of newly common shares. Convertible preferred stock is dilutive since conversion increases the number of common shares, thereby reducing the ownership level of each. 7
Employee Stock Options: are a type of equity compensation granted by companies to their employees and executives. Rather than granting shares of stock directly, the company gives derivative options on the stock instead. These options come in the form of regular call options and give the employee the right to buy the company's stock at a specified price for a finite period of time.8 Once these are converted into shares, they are dilutive.
Stock Split: a stock split increases the number of shares by splitting 1 share of the company's stock into x shares, therefore diluting the shares.
Accretion: is the opposite of dilution, whereby the it increases the level of ownership of a company by decreasing the number of shares outstanding. A company can accomplish this either through
Share Buy Back: A share repurchase refers to the management of a public company buying back company shares that were previously sold to the public. 9
Reverse Stock Split: a stock split decreases the number of shares by unifying 1 share of the company's stock into x shares, therefore decreasing the number of shares shares.
Market Cap: (Market Capitalization) is the value of a all company's shares of stock and is computed as number of shares outstanding x current stock price
An IMPORTANT note on Dilution: A company has to file an 8-k (more on that later) in order to inform existing shareholders of dilution. Every dilution is done by expanding current outstanding shares ONLY. The theoretical possible maximum of shares is the authorized shares which is unlikely to ever be reached as one of the purposes of issuing new shares is to raise capital, so if a company would reach its maximum capacity (of authorized shares) it wouldn't be able to raise more equity capital without buying back their shares.
3. TLDR - Different Type of Shares and Dilution
Authorized Shares are the MAX total number of shares a company can issue ever
Outsanding Shares are the current number of shares available to everyone
Float = Outstanding shares - restricted shares (held by insiders or under lock-up)
Unrestricted Shares: is when restricted shares become unrestricted (may be used to indicate float + unrestricted shares)
Shares Held at DTC: are the real float for us as the majority of brokers-dealers are DTC-participants
Common Stock is what we all are buying on our respective platforms
Preferred Stock is are issued primarily by banks or other financial institutions
Convertible Preferred Stock is when preferred stock gets converted to common stock (causing some dilution)
Dilutive Events: Issuance of New Shares or through Convertible securities previously issued or stock splits
Accretive Events: (Opposite of dilution) share buy-backs and reverse stock splits
Market Cap: number of shares outstanding x current stock price
4. HCMC Share Structure - As of Feb 3 2021 at market close
Why are the above definitions important to understand? There has been a picture, or a couple for that matter that show the above terms applied to HCMC that have either been called "fake" or misquoted. Disclaimer: All this data is directly from their website, OTC Markets data and Yahoo Finance from the date and time this DD will be posted, so please no comments on how the data is inaccurate, Reddit does not have dynamic tables that update themselves with the most recent prices. All further calculations will be explicitly shown.
HCMC Share Structure from HCMC Website - Feb 3 2021 at market close
If we take a closer look at the notes on the market cap field (note 5) we can see Yahoo Finance's method of calculating the market cap: Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.
This means that the figure used for the Outstanding Shares has been taken directly form HCMC's most recent 10-Q filed on 11/18/2020 with the SEC. \* \* The amount comes from page 3 of HCMC's 10-Q under the table name: "HEALTHIER CHOICES MANAGEMENT CORP. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY STATEMENTS FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 (UNAUDITED)"
The updated number of shares provided on the HCMC website accounts for convertible instruments being converted into stock
In terms of real float, i.e. shares accessible by us from our brokers (held at DTC) the float accessible to us by our brokers is the shares held at DTC which is 117 billion How much of a difference is there between the last company's 10-Q and the most recent data from the company's website?
Outstanding Shares (11/18/2020) - Official HCMC 10-Q
105.11B
Outstanding Shares (02/01/2021)
194.78B
Difference
89.67B
So we have an 89.67 billion Share difference between the two dates. This has been due to convertible instruments being converted into stock, as illustrated in the CEO's message in response to the increase in shares outstanding. 3. Taking a look at the CEO's Message: Message from Jeffrey E. Holman - HCMC CEO As we can see in the CEO's response:" All shares issued over the past two months were done so pursuant to convertible securities previously included in our 8-K and periodic filings."
Therefore, the 89.7billion increase in shares outstanding was due to either:
Preferred stock converted to common stock
Stock options converted to common stock
or both.
The CEO also stated that the number of shares is updated on a monthly basis by the OTC markets.
Therefore, the increase in shares outstanding has been done in accordance with the previous filings before HCMC started to get all of this attention.
A notice of 20 calendar days must be given upon intent of conversion
This means that when any holder of a convertible security want to convert their instruments to common stock they would be required to send a 20-day notice period
What Does This All Mean?
Assumption I will give my own interpretation of what happened, this represents my own personal opinion as I am not a financial advisor.
Given that Preferred Stocks grant you limited exposure to potential upside, this means that holders of Preferred Stock have their capital gains capped and therefore do not make money when the share price increase as they mainly receive dividends and have seniority over common stock
Given also Stock Options give you the right to convert the option to shares once a certain period has expired
The original date that Phillip Morris was supposed to respond to the lawsuit was end of January, it has been extended to the 26th of February on the 19th of January.
In order for holders of convertible instruments to converts these into shares, a 20-day notice period must be given.
As stated by the CEO, shares outstanding data is updated each month. As of January 2021 we had the original shares outstanding and as of February 2021 there was an increase due solely to convertible securities being converted.
Any material events must be disclosed in the proper filing, therefore there will be no dilution coming from anything other than convertible securities unless HCMC explicitly files the appropriate 8-k (relates to corporate events).
Tying Up All the Key Points My assumption is, and again to reiterate, this is my own personal opinion after hours research, that:
The holders of these convertible shares knew that the lawsuit would be end of January. For several years the share price remained stagnant at $0.0001. The holders of the convertible shares gave a notice period 20-days prior to the lawsuit response because they knew something we do not or they were very certain about the outcome of the lawsuit (again just conjectures) that they wanted to convert their convertible instruments to common shares in anticipation of the share price increase we are seeing now and in anticipation of a positive outcome for the lawsuit.
This is just my own opinion, but if this does hold, it is very good news to us all, as insiders converted their instruments to common stock in order to ride the share price increase the same way we are doing, in anticipation of the response to the lawsuit.
The Shares held at DTC, the ones that we are allowed to trade on our brokers are 117 billion, as opposed to the outstanding shares of 194 billion.
As an extension to my DD yesterday, lets make sense of todays psy-op
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I do not recommend any position here. Everything here is speculation and my personal opinion and not to be construed as factual in any way. I may not be correct on some of my numbers. Do your own research before making a play. Link to previous DD: https://www.reddit.com/GME/comments/lgo0f9/im_going_to_ely5_the_situation_were_in_from_a/ So I'm at the point where I don't even care about the data, all I really care about right now is studying their moves (i.e. psychological attacks) and reading the chart. It's best of we keep things as simple as we can and not over analyze things. So, what happened today? Today, there was a small blip up and down in the morning, a consistent, steady pattern to the peak, and a steady pattern back down. Volume was higher on the upswing than the downswing, and the downswing happened 15-20 minutes after the news was released that Fidelity exited their position. As a side note, on WSB all GME talk was concentrated to one non-stickied thread and the "new rage" is all about weed stonks. Lets break this down into key points (bold is TL;DR): 1) I suspect the price action today was completely controlled by the shorts. Just looking at the price action with no other context, it just looks fishy. The way I am reading the chart is they are progressively covering, and shorting, and covering again as to not build buying momentum against them. Then at 1:07, release some "bad news" about Fidelity, give it 15-20 minutes to spread to the plebs, and then start to drop the price to trick people into selling. But if you look at the volume on the downswing, ain't nobody selling. It is a pathetic attempt to shake people. Here is what the chart today looks like: just look at the smooth line up, and the smooth line down 2) The changes to WSB today are obvious. So after the bad news comes out for the hedgehogs in the form of SI, they need to up their control of WSB to help stop the bleeding. So they pump weed stocks and SNDL and quarantine GME to one non-stickied thread. Hopefully the dumb money will sell now! 🤡 3) The Fidelity article is fake news, literally. I might not be 100% accurate here, so please someone correct me if I'm wrong and I will amend this post and/or provide sources. But what I understand is that the data referenced is included in the Jan 29th FINRA report for SI. Also, it is incredibly misleading because Fidelity actually increased their stake. Really, this is old news and irrelevant and they are grasping at straws by bringing this up. Honestly, it's kind of pathetic. EDIT: sauce- https://www.reddit.com/GME/comments/lh75kf/about_fidelity_13gs/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share 4) AMC and GME are continuing to follow the same pattern. This isn't something I care to follow too heavily, but I noticed that the AMC chart was a little less concise as the GME chart. I suspect there is more liquidity in AMC which would account for a less linear rise and fall. More evidence of manipulation. 5) GME is inversely following SPY. This is indicative of rebalancing to finance their GME position. This tells me they are bleeding. Here are the two charts, see for yourself: GME SPY 6) Liquidity is bone dry. I highly recommend purchasing level 2 data if you can, because the tape tells a story that you won't get through any other means. The bid/ask spread is always wide and even the smallest amount of buying volume sends the stock flying. If you watch the tape, you can literally see when and where they are defending the price from exploding. Everytime they do this, they dig their hole deeper. Low liquidity is the most bullish sign for the squeeze there is. If a big dick buyer comes in tomorrow or Friday then the gamma squeeze would be epic and the shorts would be fuk. Side note that just by looking at the 1 minute chart, you can see the lack of liquidity. The damn chart looks like a crypto chart with tons of near-0 volume doji candles. That is the gist of it. Overall, their desperation is palpable but it is so easy to diagnose. It also seems like they are in complete control of the price, but we are in complete control of the shares. So, where do we go from here? Well, it still stands to reason that the shorts want to report a good SI from Fridays settlement date. However, they probably know that a large amount of covering will cause the price to skyrocket very quickly. So that is the conundrum the shorts are in. My prediction is one of two things happen: 1) Shorts attempt a controlled cover to 100-200 and liquidate a lot of other positions to fund a short attack to keep the price as low as they can. 2) Shorts say "fuck covering" and continue to try to keep the price low and manipulated. If this happens, February 24th is a key date. What am I doing? I am holding on to my shares obviously, and today just added 3/19 500c/800c spreads (cost basis $39) and 3/19 550c (cost basis $110). My thought being that if they continue to kick the can down the road, GME earnings might prove to be a catalyst. Please poke holes in my reasoning and challenge my thoughts. I want to be wrong.
Kickoff with Drew McIntyre returning and making his way down to the ring. Drew says it feels good to back, and thanks all the fan for their get well wishes. He says he got so lucky with his symptoms, he was able to train by day four, and wants to dedicate his match this Sunday to everyone who is fighting this disease. Speaking of other things people are sick of, Bill Goldberg. Drew says he isn't going to look at Goldberg lightly, he destroyed Hogan, the Rock, and then came back years later to start a new streak which Drew vows to end this Sunday. Drew says he's pumped up when Miz and Morrison come out. Miz says Drew vs Goldberg will be the WWE equivalent of Kong vs Godzilla, but when there is a conflict of that magnitude, there are consequences. One or both of them could end up injured, and whoever wins will be a sitting duck for Miz and Morrison to beat the holy hell out of. Then Miz will cash in his Money in the Bank and be the new WWE Champion. Goldberg makes his way down to the ring, and simply tells Drew he's next. Miz and Morrison try to egg McIntyre and Goldberg on but the two of them grab Miz and Morrison throw them into the ring. Goldberg spears Miz, and Drew Claymores Morrison, before they go face to face again and Drew holds up the title.
Backstage Charlotte is interviewed about her upcoming match with Shayna Bazler, she says it's one thing to call yourself a queen it's another to be one. She says she'll be defending the tag titles, and entering the Rumble and is going to bet on herself to win the Rumble once again. She says her father hanging around with Lacey Evans is the darkest place Ric has ever been in.
After Charlotte is attacked by Nia Jax, Mandy Rose and Dana Brooke run down to give her some back up against Nia and Shayna. Mandy and Dana are able to distract them but Lacey comes out and attacks Charlotte.
Mustafa Ali says the greatest moment in Kofi's life happened because of the worst moment in Ali's, Kofi took his spot at Elimination Chamber and stole his Wrestlemania opportunity.
Xavier Woods tries to escape after beating Slapjack but is cut off by T-Bar and thrown back into the ring where he and Mace double chokeslam Woods. Mace and T-Bar hold a dazed Woods while Slapjack gets a chair for Ali, Ali is about to hit Woods but stops and sits down. He says he is the king and like any good king he will show mercy, but he wants Woods to send a message to Kofi that his Royal Rumble spot has been forfeited, and he has been replaced by Mustafa Ali.
Riddle runs into R-Truth who says the Hurt Business have a birthday surprise for him in the VIP Lounge. Truth says they're gonna give him 24 karats, but mixes them up with carrots.
It's time for the VIP lounge with The Hurt Business. MVP says Bobby has something important he needs to bring to their attention, but first he tells Cedric and Shelton to focus on Riddle tonight. Bobby says sometimes you have to believe in someone else's belief in you. The Hurt Business is loaded with gold and this is just the beginning. Shelton starts to speak but he's cut off by Cedric who says the Hurt Business is on a roll thanks to MVP. Bobby says they wanted to give MVP a token of their appreciation, since they all have gold, they'll give MVP some gold of his own. MVP opens a box with a necklace that looks like one of MVP's classic medallions, but with THB instead. Cedric takes credit for working with the designer but Shelton cuts him off. R-Truth comes out and MVP is irate, asking why R-Truth is out there. Truth says he is there for the surprise party but MVP says he isn't on the list. Cedric tells Truth this has nothing to do with him, but Truth says the "THB" stands for Truth Happy Birthday. Shelton says this isn't the time and Truth wants to start a dance party. Lashley says he actually has a gift but it's in the ring. Truth is about to enter when a horde of wrestlers rush down to try and win the 24/7 Championship. Lashley takes care of them but Riddle is able to sneak into the ring and hit the Final Flash on MVP.
Backstage R-Truth says he wants to show he deserves an opportunity of getting in the Money in the Bank ladder match. AJ Styles and Omos come by and say he'd gladly give R-Truth a chance to prove himself because he's so benevolent. Truth that's cool that AJ is benevolent, he's a Capricorn and asks if Omos is a Taurus. He then talks about the time he and Road Dogg broke down their taurus on the way to a show.
After Morrison is defeated, Miz challenges Sheamus to face both him and Morrison in a handicap match right now and Sheamus agrees.
Shayna says she is going to through out everyone in the Royal Rumble just like she did to Mandy Rose last week, even her own tag partner. Nia takes offense to this and says she carries their team.
Jeff Jarrett is at his home and gives us his prediction as to who will win between Goldberg and Drew McIntyre. He says we'll see a spear, a jackhammer, and 1, 2, 3 a new WWE Champion.
Shanya and Nia are arguing backstage when Charly stops by to interview them. They admit they've never gotten along even when they were champions. Shayna figures with Charlotte being distracted by her father, now would be the perfect time to get a rematch for the titles.
Charlotte is interviewed, she says she has been accused of living off her last name, and now a woman is literally wearing her dad's robes and taking advantage of her dad's name. Charlotte says Lacey can wear the robe but she'll never take her crown.
Adam Pearce tells Ricochet if he wins against AJ Styles tonight he could earn a spot in the Royal Rumble. AJ and Omos come by and wonders who in their right mind would take advise from a coward like Adam Pearce who ran away from his match with Roman. At least Ricochet will lose with some dignity tonight. Ricochet AJ is forgetting what happened at TLC and that AJ will need more than a 7 foot giant to stop him tonight. AJ says he doesn't think he likes Adam Pearce anymore, and if he doesn't like him them Omos doesn't like him.
Backstage Ric Flair is teaching Lacey how to reverse out of some holds when Charlotte walks in on them. She tells Lacey to leave. Ric says just because Charlotte is a big star doesn't mean there's no place for for him in the lockeroom. Charlotte says this is the Ric that would spend money on everyone but his family and that this isn't cute anymore, he isn't a legend, he's becoming an old man. She says she isn't the bad guy and wants him to know that. As she leave Lacey hits her with the Woman's Right and woos as she walks off with Ric.
Alexa Bliss is in the middle of the ring singing the "how does your garden grow?" nursery rhyme and says she had so much fun last week. She talks to the empty swing and watches her burning Randy's face on an old TV. She then says she just wanted to have some fun with Asuka in her playground, but she mentioned him. She rewatches her victory over Asuka from last week and her mid-match transformation. She asks if we liked her trick and says he taught her that, and that she can't wait to see him again so she can thank him. Tonight she has the opportunity to win a shiny new toy, and just like last week she doesn't feel like playing nice. Alexa starts creepily singing ring around the rosey, then stares into the camera as images of The Fiend flash over her face, and finishes with Bray's voice saying let me in.
After the gauntlet match Bobby Lashley attacks Riddle from behind and locks in the Hurt Lock.
Edge says 2020 has taught him that you can't sleep on tomorrow, if you have a dream you gotta fight for it everyday because tomorrow is not guaranteed. Sometimes you just have to stand up and dust yourself off so you can keep walking forward. Ten years ago he went to sleep as the World Heavyweight Championship, a week later he had to forfeit that title and his career. Edge says he never can forget when he told his mom he wanted to be a wrestler and she told him to go do it. Those words are what allowed him to fight for nine years to get his dream back. At Backlash Randy Orton killed his triceps, and reminded him that everything you hold dear can be ripped away in a moment. You can't live in that space though, you gotta fight. He remembered what his mom said, and with that in mind he is entering the Royal Rumble. He says it won't be last year because the stakes are higher, he knows his window is closing and he has to use this as an opportunity to win back the title he never lost. Edge says he will fight with every fiber of his being to make this dream a reality. He says a world without dreamers and fighters is a much less magical place, and brings up a Henry Ford quote, "if you think you can, or think you can't, you're right." Edge says he can.
During Alexa vs Asuka, Alexa's music starts to play and Alexa appear back in her original form, visibly afraid and confused. Asuka rushes her but Alexa sends her into the turnbuckle. The lights in the Thunderdome go out, and a creepy music box plays, causing Alexa to turn into her dark form from last week. She locks in the Mandible Claw on Asuka but Randy Orton appears behind her to hit her with an RKO before Asuka can pass-out.
My uncle left me a shifty little bar in his will. One of the regulars told me he had a doppelgänger.
Not a lot of people visiting my bar are completely normal, well-adjusted individuals. It took me a long time getting on the same wavelength with most of our regulars, but I'll never forget the day I had my first close encounter with one of them. This happened when I was still quite green, as you'll see. His name was Cole. He'd been coming to the bar a lot since we'd opened up again but Andrik said he hadn't seen him around that often before. A few times, yes, but he didn't know anything about him safe for his name. Cole would never talk to anyone. He'd keep his head low and order his drinks in a rough, quiet voice. He stuttered a lot. Once he'd received his beverage of choice, he'd sit down in the emptiest corner of The New Saloon, where he would stay for up to four hours. I'd watch him from time to time. His head would always be hovering just a few inches above the table, his eyes half-closed. I felt sad for him. He looked sort of defeated, although I didn't know by whom or what. The fact that he drank a little more with every visit concerned me. I knew it wasn't really my place to snoop around in my patrons' lives, but I didn't have to be intrusive–all I wanted to know was whether he was okay. So one time when I handed him his beer, I simply asked. He stared at me for a split second, his eyes wide and watery, before he broke down sobbing. He tried to keep it in at first but eventually buried his face in his palms, tears dripping down his chin. I handed him a napkin before rounding the counter and walking over to him, waving for Andrik to take over for a little while. "It's none of my business," I began cautiously, "but if you want to talk…" "Yes," he breathed. "That might help." I nodded and we went back over to his corner booth. Glancing around, I assured myself nobody else was in earshot before sitting down across from him. I didn't have to prod for him to begin. "I'm going to kill someone very soon. He's taken everything from me, that bastard. But honestly, I'm scared." He lowered his voice. "This thing, it's not…" "Wait, slow down," I said softly. "What's he taken from you?" "Simply everything. My house, my job, my wife… It all started when I came home late from work to see the same car I own already parked in my driveway. The exact same one, down to the license plate. I went inside the house, planning to ask my wife about it, but then I heard something. My wife's voice, but also another man's. I could hear them from downstairs in the living room when I came in. I sneaked up to the bedroom, opened the door and there they were. My wife… and me." "You?" I repeated, frowning in confusion. Cole shrugged and took a sip of his drink. "Not me of course, but he looked like me. He had the same birthmark on his back, he even sounded like me. I've heard my voice recorded before so while I didn't realize it right away, his was just like mine. Before you ask, I don't have a twin or anything. The instant I saw him, I knew he wasn't human. He was something else, I didn't know what but… either way, the two of them hadn't noticed me and once I'd gotten a good look at him, I was too shocked to speak up anymore. Weak reaction, I know, but what was I supposed to do? "I went back outside and after a bit of thinking, I decided to call the police. But when I told them there was someone in my house who looked just like me and that I was scared, they hung up on me. Granted, I probably sounded like I was drunk or high or something. I was not, you should know that. I've never had any problems with my mental health either. That was just the beginning though. I'm not a confrontational kind of guy and I wasn't just going to barge in there. I was afraid and then of course, there's the fact that he literally managed to trick my wife into… I know I should have done something right away but I just couldn't. I ended up letting it happen, that and so much more. I slept in my car that night, parked somewhere public since my spot at home was occupied." Cole let out a dry laugh and emptied his glass. "You must think I'm crazy." I was staring at him with my mouth agape. I'm not sure what I had expected to hear, but this was not it; this was terrifying. I believed him though. Knowing where Andrik and the others working the bar came from, the concept of doppelgängers didn't really seem groundless. I shook my head. "I believe you," I replied quietly, my voice raw from my parched throat. I was starting to feel like I'd need a drink as well. "Go on." Cole raised an eyebrow in disbelief before taking in a shaky breath. "When I came in to work the next day, he was already there. He was sitting at my desk, reading through the papers stacked up there. I watched him for a little while. I kind of felt like something was draining from me. Maybe my energy or whatever, I'm sorry. I'm not good at storytelling. I suddenly felt incredibly hopeless is what I'm saying. I waited in the corridor outside my office for someone to come by. I wanted to talk to my co-workers; surely they'd notice that there were two of me. When the place got more crowded, they did come by, but they all just ignored me. They didn't so much look at me, not even when I tried to speak to them. It was like I wasn't even there. "And then I realized it. My wife hadn't noticed me either, even though I had been standing in the doorway right across from her. Nobody I knew was noticing me. When I turned to look back at the other me sitting in my office, he looked right at me, the only one to look me in the eyes in that entire building, and he smiled. "Again, I did nothing. I simply went back to my car and drove around, crying like a baby. I remembered The New Saloon and that's how I ended up at your bar again. See, I have nothing else to do anymore… and no one to talk to either. I don't have any siblings, my parents live overseas and I don't have any friends who'd stand with me in this. Even if I had, they would have probably forgotten me by now as well. This is the only place for me." He sighed and raised his glass. It was empty then but I smiled at the gesture, though sadly. Cole tried to smile back but his lip was quivering. "It's warmer here than in my car and the drinks are cheap, so I can just forget about everything for a little while. Besides, you guys here don't know me and since only strangers seem to acknowledge my existence anymore, I'm grateful for at least being alive here… being a person here or whatever. This thing pushed me out of my own life. I don't even dare to walk by my own house anymore because of how much it scares me. I still have access to my bank account but who knows how long that's going to last." "So now you want to kill him." "Of course. It's the only way. No clue what he is but… I bought a gun from some shady guy selling weapons underhand and I'm just going to fire until that thing isn't moving anymore. I've been waiting for too long already. Once he's dead, I'll take over again. I didn't have much of a life, but I was with the woman I love and I earned enough money to afford some luxury. My life wasn't busy or glamorous or anything but it was good, and it was mine." I nodded. I didn't know what to say so I offered to let him sleep at the bar that night since it was warm in there at least. Cole shook his head no. "I appreciate it but I have to start looking for a chance to… you know. It'll be difficult. I need to do it somewhere no one else sees, and I need to keep my wife from finding out. I don't want her to know. Maybe I should tell her, maybe I will, someday, but she'd have a complete meltdown and I just want to keep her safe. I'll be missing out on a lot of sleep from now on and I won't be showing up here as often anymore but this has to be my priority now until it's done." "Is there anything else I could help you with?" "No. I really don't want to drag anyone else into this mess… who knows what's gonna happen. But for what it's worth, thank you It was nice having somebody listen to me. And looking me in the eyes, I suppose." He rose from his seat and handed me the money for his drink directly. I watched as he left, his jacket pulled tight around his shoulders. He gave me a quick glance before he disappeared through the door, the tiniest of smiles on his lips. "Good luck!" I called after him, catching a few surprised looks from my other patrons. Smiling awkwardly, I got up and walked over to Andrik, who was just in the process of drying off a clean glass. He raised his brows quizzically. "It's nice you're getting to know your regulars, but you don't always have to take that long. You don't have to play therapist for whoever comes in here," he told me. I sighed as I joined him behind the counter. "I wasn't playing therapist, this guy just really needed someone to listen to him. He's got a bit of a situation. Say… do you know anything about impostors? Like, doppelgängers." Andrik tilted his head. "Well, a doppelgänger doesn't always have to be just that. Usually an encounter with one is said to be bad luck, so in a way, they're harbingers of misfortune. However what you mean is basically an evil twin and that can be anything." He rubbed the glass in his hands with a thoughtful look on his face. "Any being able to mimic something or someone else can set its sights on you and try to push itself into your life. However very few succeed. It'd have to be powerful to deceive its victims' entire social circle. I mean, you'd have to get every detail about them down cold." "And what if it can do that? And can it copy a person's belongings too? Like a car or something." "It'd have to be even more powerful to do that," Andrik replied. "By the way, I'll gladly tell you anything I know, but since your questions are very specific, I'm guessing this has to do with your friend from earlier." I nodded quietly. "Care to share what exactly he told you?" "I'd rather not for now. But can you kill something like what you just described, like, with a gun?" Andrik let out a mirthless chuckle. "If you could, life would be so much easier for folk like me. But no, most certainly not." I dropped the cleaning rag I'd absent-mindedly been wiping the counter with and rushed outside, my heels clacking on the wooden floor. I burst through the door, ran past Bo who flinched upon seeing me dash by, and called out Cole's name, shouting for him to come back. I walked the length of the street trying to find him. I had to warn him somehow. If what Andrik said was true, he wouldn't stand a chance. Maybe he could start anew somewhere else instead, it'd beat dying at the hands of that shapeshifter. After half an hour, I realized I wasn't going to find him. My head low, I returned to The New Saloon. When I came in, Andrik was still where I had left him, but he now had an almost sympathetic look on his face. I took position beside him again. "Go do something else, please," I muttered. "I've got this." I just wanted to be alone with my thoughts for a bit. I listened to the sounds of people chattering as I dried off glasses and cups, tidied up behind the counter and gave out drinks. I didn't know Cole very well, but I'm the type of person who gets kind of invested, I guess. At least I used to be back when this happened. I overheard May whispering something to Danika as they strolled by. "I can't believe Mack left us with someone this weepy." Or at least it was something to the tune of that. That just added to my mood. For two weeks, I waited for Cole to return. I hadn't asked him to, but I was sure he'd come by to let me know he was alright if he were to succeed. I was very busy with the bar and everything, but he was always on my mind, albeit in the back. And then, one day, completely out of the blue, Cole came marching through the door, his arm around the waist of a beautiful well-dressed woman. My heart took a leap and I beamed at the two of them, my chest light with relief. "Hi Cole," I said, barely able to contain the excitement in my voice but keeping it cool since he had who I assumed to be his wife with him. After all, she wasn't supposed to find out about the whole incident. "Long time no see. What can I get you?" "Hello," he replied, drawing out the word. I could see a hint of confusion in his eyes. "I thought this was your first time here," the lady muttered into his ear. He nodded but kept smiling politely. I frowned. Why didn't he recognize me? Furthermore, while he could have easily forgotten about what I looked like, why wouldn't he remember the bar? He'd been here time and time again during the course of the evil twin-ordeal. It took me longer than I cared to admit to put the pieces together in my head. During that time, all I did was stand and stare dumbly as the realization gradually started to set in and my stomach slowly sank. Suddenly, I felt a warm hand on my shoulder. Turning around, I found Andrik standing next to me. He eyed the couple over, but it was obvious he was focused more on the man. Cole was beginning to look rather uncomfortable, almost angry. Eventually, Andrik raised his other hand and pointed at a sign behind us on the wall. We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone. "This is a joke, right?" Cole asked. "It's not. Would you please leave now?" Andrik's voice was sharp. I was starting to get nervous. To my surprise, he squeezed my shoulder upon feeling it tremble. "You know you can't just throw out anyone, right? We didn't do anything." "Not you as in the two of you, but you as in… just you. The lady may stay if she wants to." "What did I do? Do I smell?" Cole let out an incredulous laugh as he glanced around the bar, almost like he was looking for support among the other patrons. "What did you do to him?" I pressed out. It wasn't a smart thing to ask outright, but I just had to. "Is he alive?" "I don't know what you're talking about." Andrik cleared his throat. "As you can see, your presence is distressing her. Please leave now." He said this with a deadpan look on his face, his voice flat and steady. Cole's wife looked at us like we were crazy, but I could see an angry gleam in the eyes of the impostor as he turned around and made for the door, mumbling something to the lady about how nuts we were. "Wait!" I screamed, realizing that this was my last chance to warn her. "That man is not your husband!" The lady turned around, giving me an odd look, but she didn't stop. Instead, she picked up her pace a little, approaching the exit in a hurry. "That's not Cole!" I shouted, frantically trying to get the words out as. "He's dangerous! He–" I felt Andrik cover my mouth with his hand, pulling me away from the counter and grabbing one of my flailing arms with his other one. "You're gonna get it angry!" he hissed into my ear. I struggled, trying to get over to the woman, but Andrik was stronger than he looked. By the time he let go of me, Cole's wife was gone. I looked around. None of the patrons had gotten up during my screaming fit. Like they hadn't even noticed the crazy chick going off at all. Andrik had a bitter smile on his face. "Want to know the kicker? This happens like thrice a year around here." I still remember a very short letter my uncle left me that kind of relates to what happened back there. It read, "Dear Giulia, You're nobody's savior. If you try to be, you'll either get hurt yourself or you'll see someone you care about get hurt. Both suck, so keep your distance. Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack." X Part 1: The employees here sleep in the backroom. Part 3: My bouncer and I got beaten up by a little girl. Part 4: The regular who never stops crying. Part 5: Appreciate good employees.
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